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Philip Bowring

There has never been a greater need for proportion and perspective. Daily Covid-19 counts in the absence of other statistics are not just meaningless, they are highly misleading, not least for political leaders and one-track minded scientists.
An example: Hong Kong has so far 104 Covid-19 linked deaths. In 2019, it had around 9,000 deaths from pneumonia, a not dissimilar lung infection for which there are partially effective vaccines and medicines. Like Covid-19, it kills mainly the old and those with other serious conditions.
Covid-19 is an additional, not a uniquely dangerous, pathogen. Even in Hong Kong, seasonal flu is still a killer. As for many developing countries, tuberculosis, malaria and intestinal diseases are far bigger killers.
Hong Kong has avoided the most rigid lockdowns, but why, with so few cases here or on the mainland, is travel to and from the mainland or Macau barred except for the favoured few? Does the government not believe the mainland numbers? Is this a Beijing-directed punishment of Hong Kong? Or are we now so conditioned to bringing case numbers to near zero that we are now locked into risk avoidance at any cost?
Governments put a price on life all the time. How much public money should be spent on costly drugs? How much on free vaccinations? How much on ways to reduce road deaths? It is time to put a price on adding a few months to the lives of 85-year-olds – who lived through the killer flus of 1957 and 1968.


Another issue is the continued closure of beaches, which allow for ﻿exercise free of cost in the open air, even as karaoke lounges, bars, gyms and massage parlours have opened up. Is this because beaches are a public good, but do not earn money, least of all for businesses represented by functional constituencies in the Legislative Council?
On that topic, the Court of Final Appeal’s recent decision declaring Uber illegal is a reminder of the continuing failure of a government of vested rentier interests to reform a taxi system which provides poor service and low incomes for drivers. Meanwhile, Uber carries on regardless.
Global Covid-19 numbers are bandied about without thought to accuracy of data or comparability of definitions. There has been scant debate here about Covid-19 in the context of broader health and social interests. Interestingly, Sweden’s “light touch” policy, with no school closures, few controls and relying on the common sense of the populace to keep social distancing, was set not by politicians, but by an independent public health agency.
‘Lockdown Lite’: nations test new strategy to fight virus outbreaks
This includes a wide range of specialists, able both to ignore media headlines and weigh the potential risks and rewards of policies. Its Covid-19 results have not been substantially worse than major European countries, other than Germany; meanwhile, its economy has contracted much less and its people have retained freedoms (including to assess their own risks) that others lack.
That freedom is especially important for the old. While initially Sweden had a high mortality rate especially in care homes, overall death rates have been gradually returning to those predicted by the size and age of its population.

China may have proved that in highly regimented countries, lockdowns can work and economies bounce back. But, going by the Asian Development Bank’s report, the best performing economy in Asia this year looks likely to be densely populated Bangladesh, despite it being burdened by workers returning from the Middle East. Lacking the capacity for much more than wearing masks, its policy did not lead lead to serious economic disruption nor has it suffered from a notably high number of cases.
In contrast, India’s severe lockdown ordered by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which sent millions of poor from cities back to their villages, has seen the virus spread anyway while the economy is expected to contract by 9 per cent. Luckily with a youthful population, death rates have been very low relative to the high percentages of those with antibodies – 50 per cent in some locations.


Everywhere, policies are made by bureaucrats and virologists sitting in front of Zoom screens. Meanwhile, we must all thank the poorest class, the farmers, for largely ignoring them and carrying on producing our food. Indonesia and the Philippines are both showing growth in agriculture while other activities shrink.
Philippines otherwise has been another instance of severe lockdown, driven by an authoritarian leader, which proved ineffective. It has the highest per capita Covid-19 rate in Southeast Asia and an economy expected to shrink 7 per cent. The mess has hurt Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s popularity, and may be one reason why this week he responded to local sentiment by shifting away from a China-friendly stance to urge international backing for Philippine rights in the South China Sea, as ruled by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016.
Thailand’s long quiescent students have been on the streets urging reform of the monarchy and an end to de facto military rule. In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro has seen his popularity rise and the economy shrink less than its neighbours by imposing almost no controls while having only an average death toll relative to Latin America. But in Mexico, a different kind of populist, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has seen his popularity slump in the face of unemployment.
The political effects of lockdowns, unemployment and mortgaging the future of the younger generations for the sake of the baby boomers are only just beginning.
Philip Bowring is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator


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There has been scant debate in Hong Kong, where pneumonia claimed around 9,000 lives in 2019, about Covid-19 in the context of broader health and social interests
Sweden has shown that a ‘light touch’ policy works, while there are also lessons to be learnt from Bangladesh and Brazil



There has been scant debate in Hong Kong, where pneumonia claimed around 9,000 lives in 2019, about Covid-19 in the context of broader health and social interests. Apart from Sweden’s ‘light-touch’ policy, there are also lessons to be learnt from Bangladesh and Brazil.


Coronavirus pandemic

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Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


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