Beijing shows how coronavirus’ impact on the economy can be contained

Beijing authorities responded quickly to the outbreak of a new wave of infections with aggressive mass testing and a partial lockdown, shoring up public confidence

Its playbook should be studied, as the virus is expected to re-emerge from time to time until a vaccine is found

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People wearing protective face masks ride the subway in Beijing during evening rush hour on June 18, a week after the city was hit by a second wave of Covid-19 infections. Passenger numbers dipped on news of the mini outbreak, but to nowhere near the lows experienced during January and February. Photo: EPA-EFE

Hao Zhou currently serves as a senior economist (emerging markets) with Commerzbank.

Published: 6:00am, 1 Jul 2020Updated: 6:08am, 1 Jul 2020

The coronavirus resurgence and subsequent partial lockdown in Beijing has clearly brought further uncertainties to China’s growth outlook. However, there are new dynamics this time, which might help us better figure out Covid-19’s influence on society and the economy in the future.

First, Beijing’s subway passenger data offers a sense of the impact of the virus and lockdown. Since Beijing reported the first of a new wave of local cases on June 11, its subway passenger volume has experienced a sharp decline – from June 11-23, the average daily volume was about 4.2 million, compared with 6.2 million in the first 10 days of June.

Clearly, people reduced their travel significantly, cutting back on non-essential journeys especially, due to virus concerns. However, if compared with the 5.2 million daily commuters in May and 3.2 million in April, it seems the second wave did not radically change daily life in China’s capital, as we saw happen in January and February when the virus first broke out in Wuhan.

Why the difference? To a large extent, people might be gradually getting used to living with Covid-19. For example, many Chinese were still wearing masks in public and many social distancing measures were still in place even before Beijing reported the second wave of cases.