An EU-Britain contest for Asia’s trade will only weaken both Brussels and London

One possible consequence of Brexit is competition between Britain and the European Union for Asia’s attention. However, despite Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab’s visits to Australia, Japan and Malaysia last month, London is unlikely to have the resources to emerge as a serious rival. To the surprise of most, Britain did not bother sending a minister to the recent Munich Security Conference, where EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell prepared for upcoming summits with his Chinese, Japanese and Indian colleagues. Asia increasingly views the EU as a stable and predictable actor, regulatory superpower and pillar of the multilateral system. As Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said, “closer EU-Asia relations can only result in a win-win situation”. Borrell recently told a meeting in Brussels that Abe’s views were widely shared by Asian foreign ministers at an Asia-Europe Meeting forum in Madrid last December. The purpose of the Madrid talks was to prepare for a full summit in Cambodia in November to discuss trade, climate change and connectivity. That is just one of many summits planned as both Asia and the EU seek to preserve the rules-based international system from dismemberment by United States President Donald Trump. This month, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Brussels to kick-start stalled negotiations for an India-EU trade agreement. EU leaders will also visit Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing before the summer. The biggest challenge will be China, which the EU branded a “systemic rival” in its tough new policy paper last March. Beijing, taken aback, has been wooing Brussels with statements about a common commitment to multilateralism. Two EU-China summits are planned in April in Beijing (coronavirus permitting) and Leipzig in September. If no agreement is reached on the EU-China investment treaty by then, Brussels stands ready to introduce measures to restrict Chinese business activity in Europe, which could involve tougher investment screening and restrictions on Chinese bids for public projects. The guiding principle, said EU trade tsar Phil Hogan, is reciprocity. If China continues to impose barriers to European companies in China, they will face the same difficulties in Europe. As the West wanes, China and Europe can build a more inclusive world order Trade continues to be a top priority in EU-Asia relations, with deals agreed in South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Vietnam, and negotiations continuing with Australia and New Zealand. Countries including Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia are prepared to start talks. Nearly all Asian countries want access to the EU market and are increasingly under the sway of EU regulatory standards. Most Asian leaders are baffled by Britain’s decision to walk away from the world’s biggest market on its doorstep. Britain’s plan to open more trade posts in Asia is unlikely to change overall perception in Asia. Many Asian countries, Japan in particular, also feel Britain has reneged on promises regarding access to the single market. In contrast to the packed schedule of EU-Asian summits, there are no plans for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to visit Asia, nor is he assured of a warm welcome. India will not be happy if there are no extra work visas on offer. Japan’s disappointment is unlikely to disappear soon. China has made clear that any trade deal will be dependent on telecoms company Huawei’s participation in Britain’s 5G network, which provoked a furious response from Trump and revealed London’s difficulties in operating without EU support. Britain may play the security card to increase its influence in Asia. But its promise to send an aircraft carrier to the South China Sea will irritate Beijing. The EU is keen to build up its hard security too, but this will take time. Only France has the military capability to deploy in Asia, but its emphasis is on soft security: cybersecurity, countering proliferation and building resilience. The EU is Asia’s main aid donor in terms of developmental and humanitarian help, while its connectivity strategy – which emphasises the transparency and sustainability of infrastructure projects – is another example of soft security. In an ideal world, Brussels and London would cooperate in engaging Asia. With competition likely to be the name of the game, however, their combined influence in promoting free trade and multilateralism would be weakened. Post Brexit, the EU will increasingly engage Asia with a mix of summits and practical cooperation on trade and other issues. Britain might like to compete for influence but it will not have the resources. Global Britain remains little more than a slogan, and Asians prefer markets to marketing. Fraser Cameron is director of the EU-Asia Centre, a Brussels-based think tank