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Cary Huang

The signing of a US-China trade deal this week once again shows how history can change because of negotiations. This is why leaders, whether they are democratically elected or a dictator, prefer diplomacy to military means for settling disputes. Peace often means less cost and more benefits than war.
This is also the reason US President Donald Trump is seeking diplomacy to resolve the wrangle with his North Korean opponent Kim Jong-un over the nuclear issue, despite the failure so far of their multiple summits.
Trump surprised the world by holding three summits with Kim within a year: the first in Singapore in June 2018; the second in Vietnam in February last year; and the third at the demilitarised zone that separates North and South Korea in June.
Now, nearly 20 months after their first summit, Kim has announced an end to the self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests, which had been in place since the first summit.


In these talks between the US and North Korea, each side’s objectives were clear: the US sought denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, while North Korea wanted US assurances it would not try to overthrow Kim’s family rule. From the beginning, Washington and Pyongyang were largely agreed on these goals. But the stand-off came from their fundamental disagreement on the approach to reach them.
Washington had demanded that Pyongyang abandon its nuclear weapons entirely before US-led international sanctions were lifted. North Korea, however, wanted a step-by-step approach in which moves towards denuclearisation were matched by American concessions, specifically a relaxation of sanctions.
As Trump targets Iran, North Korea’s Kim would be wise to lie low
To get Washington to start gradually lifting the sanctions, Kim put a hold on North Korea’s nuclear tests and offered to abandon some of its nuclear facilities. But Trump rejected the approach of making reciprocal concessions, on suspicion that Kim’s limited concessions might be moves to buy time and not to denuclearise fully, as the US is demanding.
The saga suggests that trust is the key to successful negotiations; trust has been badly lacking between Washington and Pyongyang.
Under such circumstances, diplomatic mediation by a third party becomes critical. China might best fit such a role, as Beijing has the will and also the way to fulfil the duty.

 
Trump and Kim have, in the past, sought Chinese President Xi Jinping’s advice for the summits. Trump, in particular, has tried to link the US-China trade talks with the North Korean nuclear negotiations by offering Xi trade concessions in exchange for Chinese cooperation in putting pressure on North Korea to denuclearise. The US-China trade detente might create momentum for the resumption of US-North Korea talks.
Trump might have had this goal in mind in his recent phone call to Xi. For all their squabbles over various issues, Beijing and Washington share a common desire for peace on the peninsula. Neither North Korea’s nuclear programme nor regime change in Pyongyang would serve China’s own interests.
Will China keeps its patience with North Korea in 2020?
Beijing’s mediation of the nuclear talks would also help promote its status as a responsible power on the world stage. After all, the United Nations Charter obliges its members “to seek a solution by negotiation, enquiry, mediation … or other peaceful means of their own choice”.
Such efforts will help China improve its relations with key neighbours, including Japan and South Korea, especially as Tokyo and Seoul openly welcome Beijing’s help to break the nuclear impasse and shore up regional security. Thus, by mediating in the talks, Beijing might be killing several birds with one stone.
As North Korea’s crucial lifeline supporter and sole ally, Beijing has leverage over the world’s most reclusive regime. Xi’s close relationships with both Trump and Kim could also serve to foster trust and calm the mutual suspicions between North Korea and the US.
Trump claimed to have fallen “in love” with Kim, and said recently that he believed the young leader would be a “man of his word”. But as leaders of the world’s two most powerful nations, Trump and Xi certainly should be.
Cary Huang is a veteran China affairs columnist, having written on this topic since the early 1990s

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High-profile summits between Kim and Trump have ended in failure, with Pyongyang lifting its moratorium on nuclear testing. China, an acknowledged partner of influence in the region, should embrace its role as peacemaker



High-profile summits between Kim and Trump have ended in failure, with Pyongyang lifting its moratorium on nuclear testing. China, an acknowledged partner of influence in the region, should embrace its role as peacemaker.


Kim Jong-un

Xi Jinping

North Korea nuclear crisis

Donald Trump

Korean peninsula

US-China trade war

US-China trade war: All stories

US-China trade war: Opinion

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


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