Opinion

US exit from Afghanistan would leave the way clear for China to increase its influence in the region

China’s shared border with Afghanistan through the Wakhan Valley and its model of non-intervention are advantages it can exploit to cement its foothold

The withdrawal of US troops would also send a serious message of diminishing US power

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US soldiers who are part of the Nato deployment are seen through the cracked window of an armoured vehicle in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province in July 2018. US retrenchment in Afghanistan was a campaign promise by President Donald Trump. Photo: AFP

Dr S. George Marano is the founder and principal consultant of RBV Consulting Group, a boutique strategic management consulting firm.

Published: 1:00am, 11 Dec 2019Updated: 1:26am, 11 Dec 2019

President Donald Trump’s election promise of withdrawing US troops from Afghanistan has been on-again, off-again for quite some time. In its latest iteration, a proposed detente with the Taliban is being discussed, which, if successful, would provide the political capital needed for his 2020 re-election.

While sounding logical, considering the 18 years of war, a US departure from Afghanistan would create a geopolitical reconfiguration detrimental to the US and favourable to China.

As US involvement in Afghanistan drags on, the land and its people further cement their reputation as the graveyard of empires. The first thoroughly documented invasion of Afghanistan was Britain’s two ill-fated attempts beginning in 1839 when it was at the height of its power.

The USSR’s invasion in 1979 ended in an embarrassing defeat and was a major catalyst in the fall of the Soviet Union. The US’ failed attempt in 2001 to conquer Afghanistan, even with a population exhausted by decades of war, just adds to this categorisation.