Hong Kong’s protests present Beijing with a no-win situation. Will it choose the path where it loses the least?

Being dependent on international goodwill to maintain trade, it’s in Beijing’s interests to handle Hong Kong with patience. But with leaders stoking nationalism, they may be tempted to deal with protesters decisively, to bolster legitimacy at home

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Nicholas Ross Smith is an adjunct fellow at the University of Canterbury, New Zealand.

Published: 9:00am, 22 Nov 2019Updated: 10:03am, 22 Nov 2019

The past week has seen worrying new levels of violence and destruction in Hong Kong as battles between the police and protesters erupted in numerous locations. Despite Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor backing down from the original extradition bill, protesters have not only continued to demonstrate but seem to be radicalising.

The current state of Hong Kong – a city seemingly on the verge of widespread civil collapse – presents a massive challenge for Beijing for a number of reasons.

First, there is the immediate problem of how to return Hong Kong to a state of relative normality. The city has been a jewel in Beijing’s crown: an internationally reputable financial hub which acted as a gateway between the Western world and China. But, since the onset of the protests – and particularly in recent weeks with the escalation of clashes – it is possible that Hong Kong’s days as an international laissez-faire “tiger” are numbered.

In the short term, quelling the protest movement is going to be difficult for Beijing. Rescinding the extradition bill had no effect in slowing the movement and any further concessions by China run the risk of causing a “Tocqueville effect”: any state concessions during a time of state-society discontent may inadvertently embolden and galvanise the disgruntled group.