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The View
As a financial crisis looms and refugee crises worsen, the world seems to have forgotten the lessons of 1945
- Global growth is unlikely to recover soon, given not only the US-China trade war but also geopolitical tensions
- Around the world, the number of forcibly displaced people has hit a record high
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Dr Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognised expert of the multipolar world.
In its new report, the International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth in 2019 of 3 per cent, the lowest since the global financial crisis of 2008-9. This is largely due to the US-China tariff war, which has contributed to a projected slowdown in the United States and China.
The IMF expects growth to pick up to 3.4 per cent in 2020. That, however, is predicated on improvements in a number of emerging economies in Latin America, the Middle East and Europe, which, in turn, would require a trade recovery. Thanks to the global slowdown, world growth prospects now hover at 2008-9 levels.
At the peak of globalisation, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was often used as a barometer for international commodity trade. The index soared to a record high, 11,793 points, in May 2008. But as the crisis spread in the advanced West, it plunged 94 per cent to 663 points.
Last February, the BDI sank to 595 points. In September, optimistic speculation drove the index up to 2,500. Now it’s back to around 1,900, about 85 per cent below its peak. Unfortunately, broader measures of global economic engagement are equally dire.
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