Hong Kong’s protests don’t faze Beijing – leaders will play the long game and rebuild the faded city after 2047

Hong Kong’s protests, driven by a false sense of superiority to the mainland, are unlikely to provoke an overreaction from Chinese leaders. Beijing has no reason to fear them spreading, as its people have confidence in the government and optimism in the future

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A construction worker builds a wall outside a compound in Beijing in August 2017. Photo: AFP

Dr Michael Tai is a fellow of the Royal Asiatic Society and author of US-China Relations in the 21st Century: A Question of Trust.

Published: 6:00am, 2 Oct 2019Updated: 6:00am, 2 Oct 2019

Many Hongkongers hold the mainland and its people in contempt. Taking pride in their higher income and association with their former colonial master, they would rather be British than Chinese, even as many of the city's wealthier residents already hold foreign passports. As protests continue into a fourth month, with no end in sight, the question is: what should Beijing do? Probably nothing.

With a deep sense of history, Chinese leaders play the long game and know not to be provoked. Beijing can patiently wait until the young protesters see that Hong Kong's future rests with the mainland and not the other way round. Beijing is committed to “one country, two systems” but Hong Kong, with a population of 7.4 million people, is just another second-tier Chinese city with diminishing stature.

While it once served as the gateway for trade and investments into China, that is no longer the case. Outside investors now head straight to Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and even second- and third-tier cities such as Dalian, Suzhou or Zhuhai. Whereas in 1993, Hong Kong accounted for 27 per cent of China's GDP, today it represents only 2.7 per cent, falling behind its neighbour Shenzhen, a fishing village not so long ago.