Bear with Britain: Brexit mess and antagonistic China approach show UK needs time to sort itself out

Countries all over the world have been asking recently: what on earth is the UK government up to? Only six weeks before the country is set to leave the European Union, there appears to be no withdrawal agreement in place and no clear plan towards achieving a deal. This is not because of deadlock between government and opposition; it is because of an internal deadlock within both major parties, with some members of parliament frustrating a deal because they would be happier with a no-deal clean break, while others are muddying the waters in the hope of preventing Britain from leaving the EU altogether. The government, whose majority depends on a small party which is only active in Northern Ireland, has already lost two parliamentary votes on a proposed withdrawal deal, and no one can see how they might arrive upon a deal which might pass through Parliament. Normally, in a parliamentary democracy, if a government loses repeated votes and can see no way forward, it will stand down and hold new elections, but no one is keen on that either: if the governing Conservative Party is in a mess, the opposition Labour Party is in a worse one, rived by feuds and lying up to seven points behind the government in the polls. And the latest development has been even more bizarre. The rationale for Brexit was that it would facilitate trade deals with major non-European economies. By any assessment, this must include China as well as the Anglosphere. Even before Brexit became a factor, former prime minister David Cameron agreed with the Chinese leadership that a new “golden era” (President Xi Jinping’s words) of Anglo-Chinese relations was about to begin. Chinese goodwill was therefore in place, and all the UK needed to do was keep bilateral relations positive while it worked on mutually beneficial trade deals. Given that Britain may well face a messy and acrimonious exit from the EU, surely the sooner we can put together deals with a powerful economy like that of China, the better? With that in mind, Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond was due to visit China to lay down some framework agreements. Enter Secretary of State for Defence Gavin Williamson. Williamson is a young man who has not been in the job long. He is known for keeping a poisonous spider in a transparent box in his office to emphasise his toughness. For some reason, Williamson thought this was a good time to issue a threat to send the new aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth to the Asia-Pacific region, for which nobody can see a reason other than a wish to challenge China’s position in the South China Sea. British defence minister more like Mr Bean This looks like an example of the “Trump effect”, that is, the sort of blustering gesture that the US president might have made to shake up a situation where there appears to be a blockage. But the UK is not the US. It is not in a position to frighten anybody, and most of us realise that nothing will be achieved by trying to do so. True, there is as yet no open confrontation. Williamson’s only mention of China in his speech was to say “All the while, China is developing its modern military capability and its commercial power”. This is simply a fact, and Chinese leaders frequently say exactly the same in public. But a fact can still be used as a provocation: as the poet William Blake once said: “A truth that’s told with bad intent/Beats all the lies you can invent.” Likewise, China has not said openly that Williamson’s tirade is directly connected to the cancellation of Hammond’s visit to China, but the timing of the cancellation makes it clear that the Chinese are deeply offended. The Chinese ambassador in London has called on the Foreign Office to make China’s displeasure clear. Britain risks raising tensions with military base in Southeast Asia So, we have one British minister who sees Brexit as an opportunity to stand tall in a military sense and wave sabres about, and several others who realise that Brexit requires maintaining the best possible relations with the trading partners Britain will need most once it has left the EU, with which relations are likely to be tricky, at least in the short term. It is hardly surprising that China finds it difficult to perceive what Britain’s real intentions are, and what it actually wants from the relationship. (The European Union would sympathise.) As a loyal Briton, I can only plead with the rest of the world to give us a little time to sort ourselves out. The UK has tied itself in knots, and is not giving a particularly good demonstration of the workings of a parliamentary democracy. Prime Minister Theresa May is a person of good will and good sense, though her control over her errant colleagues leaves something to be desired. But she and all sensible Britons know that China is essential to our future and that we will – we must – stay engaged. Tim Collard is a former British diplomat specialising in China. He spent nine years as an analyst in Beijing