Opinion | Theresa May and the EU can’t resolve Brexit without more time, and then a second referendum
- Alan Rosling says it’s not clear how any Brexit deal could clear Parliament – and the European Union – before the present deadline, and political divisions are too deep to resolve without another vote
The UK has been pitched into the worst political and constitutional crisis in living memory. Former prime minister David Cameron’s decision to call a referendum over the UK’s membership in the EU was designed to contain deep splits in the Conservative Party over Europe. Instead, the unexpected victory of the Leave campaign triggered the slide towards the current toxic impasse.
The default position is that the UK will exit the EU, with or without agreed terms, on March 29, in just over two months’ time. While there are a few convinced Brexiteers who believe leaving the EU without a deal is an acceptable risk, the vast majority of politicians, economists and business leaders think that a so-called hard Brexit would inflict serious damage to the country. The worst-case scenarios suggest there would be significant disruption to trade, travel and supplies of essential items. The Bank of England has modelled downside scenarios that envisage GDP shrinking by as much as 8 per cent with nasty knock-on effects on employment, inflation, asset prices and the pound.
The only thing on which most MPs can agree is that crashing out of the EU without a deal is unacceptable. Yet, in the absence of another solution agreed upon not just by the UK Parliament but also the 27 remaining members of EU, the UK seems set to fall out of the EU in just a few weeks.