appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Adnan Aamir

In just two weeks, tension between India and Pakistan has escalated so rapidly that the two countries are now at brink of a full-scale war.
On February 14, a suicide bomber killed at least 40 Indian paramilitary policemen in Pulwama in Indian-administered Kashmir. The attack provoked a wave of anger across India, pressuring the government to act.
Subsequently, on February 26, Indian air force jets attacked targets in the Balakot area of Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Although India claimed to have killed over 300 terrorists in these strikes, reports from the ground in Pakistan suggested that there were no casualties.
The Balakot attack put Pakistan’s armed forces in a tough spot. Their response was to send Pakistan fighter jets to conduct air strikes in Indian-administered Kashmir.
Did Pakistan use its Chinese JF-17 jets to shoot down Indian planes?
In the ensuing confrontation between Indian and Pakistani forces, India said it had shot down one Pakistani aircraft while Pakistan said it had shot down two Indian jets. The pilot of an Indian fighter jet, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, was arrested by the Pakistani army.  
As expected, the international community, including the United Kingdom, United States, the European Union and China, urged both countries to show restraint.
Then, the Pakistani government made a bold decision. On February 28, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan announced the release of the captured Indian pilot, a decision appreciated even in India and one that is likely to contribute to the de-escalation of tensions.


How did the two nuclear powers arrive at this point? The upcoming general elections in India in April and May may have played a part.
India’s right-wing Prime Minister Narendra Modi is facing a tough time from his political opponents and probably needed to take a strong stance against Pakistan. The Pulwama attack provided Modi with the perfect opportunity at the right time.
The Indian government authorised raids inside Pakistani territory based on claims that Pakistan sponsored the Pulwama attack on February 14. Perhaps the Indian side miscalculated Pakistan’s response, which further exacerbated the conflict.
It is likely that had the Pulwama attack taken place at a time when elections in India were not around the corner, the Indian government would have never gone to the extent of conducting a raid inside Pakistani territory.
Pakistan releases captured Indian pilot Abhinandan as tension eases
Moreover, Pakistan cannot afford to be adventurous on its eastern border given its own state of crisis. Pakistan is in the midst of a severe economic crisis – the country is facing a severe devaluation of its currency and running out of foreign exchange reserves to pay for imports.
After assistance from China, Pakistan has now turned to Saudi Arabia to keep its economy functioning. Therefore, on the eve of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to India, Pakistan has no incentive to sanction an attack against Indian paramilitary forces. Pakistan cannot afford an intense confrontation with India due to its economic woes.

Meanwhile, the ongoing confrontation between the South Asian neighbours has had wider global repercussions. Hundreds of flights were disrupted and thousands of people were stranded at airports after Pakistan closed its airspace to pre-empt another Indian attack.  
The tension between India and Pakistan also threatens the Afghan peace process, in which Pakistan is playing a leading role. China’s current and Saudi Arabia’s potential investments will be at risk if the current conflict escalates. Therefore, a concerted effort is being made by the global community to force both India and Pakistan to stand down.
Pakistan partially reopens airspace amid easing tensions with India
Pakistan’s release of the Indian pilot in its custody has put the ball in India’s court. There is likely to be more pressure from the global community for India to reciprocate the peaceful overtures of the Pakistani government. If India digs its heels in, it may face further pressure from the global community and will be not be able to maintain an aggressive military stance.


China and the US have remained neutral in the ongoing conflict, but both countries have huge stakes in Pakistan. The US wants Pakistan to facilitate the end of 18-year-long “war on terror” in Afghanistan, which would enable the US to pull its troops out of that country.
Meanwhile, Pakistan is home to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a flagship project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, China and the US will use all their influence on both countries to prevent any further escalation of the conflict.
Pakistan’s currency crisis: China’s the problem and solution
On Friday, there was an exchange of fire between Indian and Pakistani troops along the Line of Control, the de facto border between India and Pakistan, with Pakistani officials saying civilians had been killed. However, shelling across the Line of control has been happening for years, and does not signal a further escalation of the conflict.
The current tension between India and Pakistan is likely to blow over. However, because the fault lines between the two countries remain, similar conflicts will can occur in the future.
Although it is likely the Indian government will be forced to back down due to international pressure, given the political stakes involved, the Modi government will not tone down its anti-Pakistan rhetoric. It will continue issuing statements critical of Pakistan while not taking any military action against Pakistan, at least till upcoming elections.
Adnan Aamir is a journalist and researcher. Follow him on twitter @iAdnanAamir. Email: Adnan.aamir@Live.com


China’s sulphur imports dive 65% as prices surge 3.5 times amid Middle East disruption

What can Asia, Global South learn from India’s new digital payment fee?

Baby elephant rescued in India after being swept away by powerful currents

Morgan Stanley ‘fat finger’ leak of confidential deal pipeline sets off alarm bells

India

India and Pakistan are not going to war any time soon, but expect the bluster to continue

Illustration: Craig Stephens

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman shakes hand with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with Indian President Ram Nath Kovind standing beside them during a ceremonial welcome in New Delhi, India, Wednesday, Feb. 20, 2019. Prince Mohammed arrived in India after visiting Pakistan, which New Delhi blames for a suicide bombing attack last week that killed at least 40 Indian soldiers in disputed Kashmir. (AP Photo/Manish Swarup)

Pakistan appeals to China for help easing conflict with India

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi (right) appealed to his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi (right) to help resolve its conflict with India. Photo: EPA-EFE

Map of Line of Control in Kashmir

Saved from furious Pakistani mob, captured Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman becomes bloodied face of Kashmir crisis

Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman is seen bloodied and with his eyes blindfolded in a scene from a video shared on social media. Photo: YouTube

Indian Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman is seen being beaten by a mob in a still image from a video. Photo: YouTube

Did Pakistan use its Chinese JF-17 jets to shoot down Indian planes?

Pakistan and China are jointly producing the Chinese-designed JF-17 Thunder. Photo: AFP

Pakistan partially reopens airspace amid signs of easing tensions with India

Stranded passengers wait at the check-in area at the Suvarnabhumi International Airport in Bangkok. Photo: AFP

Opinion

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to keep up the anti-Pakistan rhetoric but heed international pressure not to escalate the conflict
Meanwhile, cash-strapped Pakistan would not want a protracted conflict either


Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to keep up the anti-Pakistan rhetoric but heed international pressure not to escalate the conflict. Meanwhile, cash-strapped Pakistan would not want a protracted conflict either.


Pakistan

Kashmir

Narendra Modi

Diplomacy

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)
