Opinion | Donald Trump caught between his wall and a hard place – China. And Beijing is watching his negotiations very closely

While Americans focus on President Donald Trump’s negotiations over the Mexico border wall, negotiations over his other wall – trade with China – carry on less raucously. If he thinks getting to “yes” on the Mexico wall is hard, just wait until he tries getting to “yes” on trade with Beijing. He loses with his base if he makes a deal, and he loses with Wall Street if he doesn’t. Either way, it’s a no-win situation for the United States.

Promises to fix the border with Mexico and trade with China were arguably the cornerstones of Trump’s presidential campaign, which yielded many votes for him in 2016. Failing to deliver on either may doom his re-election in 2020. Then again, what success in the trade war means depends on who you’re asking.

No deal is probably the preferred outcome in the eyes of his base, and may be the better outcome for much of the country – indeed, for liberal democracy everywhere – in the long run. But Wall Street, Silicon Valley and others who make a living from US-China trade would all like to get back to making money.

Beijing says Trump started the trade war when he imposed tariffs on a range of Chinese goods last year. Many Americans, and not just Trump supporters, believe a different story – that China had launched a quiet, non-military assault on the US years ago.