The View | Hong Kong is caught between China and the US in their new cold war – but this isn’t the first time

Hong Kong officials have warned repeatedly that the city will be hurt by an escalation of the cold war between China and the United States. They are right. Even if the current round of trade talks between Beijing and Washington results in a truce, the outlook for the foreseeable future is stormy.

US President Donald Trump enjoys bipartisan support for the tougher line he has taken towards China. This is one of the only areas where he has broad support. Trump is, in fact, likely to face pressure from both Democrats and Republicans if he backs off from a confrontation with China. The Washington consensus from presidents Nixon to Obama that the US should enable China’s economic rise has been shredded. If the dragon and the eagle fight, Hong Kong will suffer.

How exactly could Hong Kong be hurt? And what can the territory do to protect itself? Damage will be concentrated in three areas – shipping, technology and finance.

Hong Kong’s port activities are dropping as the mainland’s improve. But Hong Kong is still a major transshipment port. Most of these shipments are from China to the US and they are likely to, at best, stagnate. Plenty of goods going from the US to China, legally or illegally, come through the port. The two countries are too intertwined for trade volume to plummet in the near term. But a slowdown in Sino-US trade will accelerate the decline already under way at Hong Kong’s port.