Opinion | In an era of disruption, China is positioning itself as the next foreign policy leader

As the world’s governments grapple with uncertainties, China, with its belt and road strategy, growing military muscle and AI ambitions, is preparing to emerge as a leading force in diplomacy

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China is prepared for the global turbulence with its decades-long use of five-year plans, the latest of which was made in 2017, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, seen here on October 18, with security officers standing guard before the opening ceremony of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 11:05am, 21 May 2019Updated: 11:05am, 21 May 2019

As global affairs continue to career out of control, the world’s foreign-policy decision-makers may be forgiven for feeling as if they are floating around in a weightless atmosphere, wondering what they will crash into next. What distinguishes this “negative G” era from others in the past is that the world is not at war, nor is there a global economic crisis.

Rather, this is occurring while the world is at relative peace and in comparative prosperity. Only rarely has an era of disruption coincided with such political calm and favourable economic indicators.

This puts policymakers in a rather unenviable position. The era of disruption has taken hold, with pressure on virtually every facet of the foreign policymaking process: politics, economics, sociocultural issues, the military, cyber, technology, and the environment.

This has coalesced into what amounts to mission impossible; how can foreign-policy decision-makers possibly craft strategies with any hope of remaining relevant and implementable in the long term with so many variables?

The world’s governments would be wise to take a page from the Chinese playbook. Through its decades-long use of five-year plans, Beijing has become masterful at crafting long-term strategic vision, devoting the necessary resources and ensuring successful implementation. Such an approach has naturally spilled over into foreign policy, with Beijing simultaneously pursuing the Belt and Road Initiative, a military build-up and the pursuit of supremacy in artificial intelligence.

Beijing is, in effect, creating its own foreign policy reality. By having a futuristic world vision created in its own image, and by devoting incredible financial resources over many years to seeing it through, China’s government is virtually ensuring that it controls much of the dialectic in global foreign policy. No other government comes close to rolling out an initiative as bold and sweeping as the belt and road, and Beijing is spending more than all other governments combined in its pursuit of AI supremacy.