The ‘big dumb guy’ and why a China trade deal will be a flop
- Watching the US inch toward a watered-down trade agreement is like watching the big dumb guy reach for a doorknob in a horror movie
- You scream – “Don’t open that door!” – but you know he’s going to open it and a guy with an axe on the other side is going to do what guys with axes do
“This time we really mean it. This time we’re going to change China. Honest. This time won’t be like the market access and intellectual property protection trade deals of 1992. Or 1995. Not to mention 1999 – or the 10 times since then that China’s leaders have promised to stop doing this or that trade practice we found objectionable and finally behave like we want them to. This time is different. This time, your president is our president’s friend. And even if he weren’t, our president is still the world’s greatest negotiator – just ask him – so you can take this one to the bank.”
That seems to be the message coming out of Washington nowadays, various optimistic words by Trump administration honchos that “an agreement” is almost here. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow pretty much always have upbeat assessments about the negotiations for anyone accompanied by a cameraman. Trump tweets superlatives about what he promises will be “the biggest trade deal ever made.” But will it be any different from those that preceded it? Or will Trump water it down?
The last line of defence for Americans against another toothless trade deal is US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who is labouring with Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He on the structure of an “enforcement mechanism” to ensure Beijing keeps its promises. Lighthizer is paying enough attention to this missing dimension of negotiations past to indicate the US is finally getting serious about it. You don’t hear him making silly comments to reporters about anything, let alone the ongoing negotiation he’s leading. No doubt he wishes the others would pipe down while he does his work.