Opinion | US remains the top power in Asia but for how long, as Trump erodes vital alliances?

According to the Lowy Institute’s inaugural Asia Power Index, the United States remains the pre-eminent power in Asia. But this may not last long if current trends continue. 

The US claims the top spot in five of the eight index measures and a 10-point lead over China overall. The US retains the most powerful military in Asia and is at the centre of a network of regional alliances that Beijing cannot match. 

But China’s economic march is irreversible. While the US economy retains a slight edge in overall economic strength, China’s economy is already significantly stronger in purchasing power parity, and leads in the reach and depth of its economic relationships in Asia. This is a glaring weakness in US influence in Asia, and President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal with 11 leading Asia-Pacific economies exposes America even further. 

There is a wide power differential between the US and China – the two regional superpowers – and the rest of the region. However, other Asian countries are rising. India (in fourth place on the index) is set to become the fastest-growing economy in the region, predicted to grow 169 per cent between 2016 and 2030 and add 169 million people to its working-age population. India is Asia’s sleeping giant, and may soon wake. 

Kim Jong-un has successfully muscled his way into a summit meeting with the US president – but North Korea is weaker than it appears, a misfit power whose military capability far outstrips all other aspects of its power. While this asymmetric, nuclear-charged posture has proven an effective deterrence and disruption strategy against far larger powers like the US, North Korea remains brittle, its power concentrated in one dimension. It has a tiny economy, a small and unproductive working population, no trading relationships and only one, currently testy, ally. Kim has played a weak hand very well. 

Where the US is strongest in Asia is in its alliances and defence networks. Over the course of more than half a century, successive US administrations have built a network of alliances across Asia which are the envy of China. The US has formal alliances with Japan (ranked third in the index), Australia (6th), South Korea (7th), Thailand (11th), New Zealand (12th) and the Philippines (16th). By law, it supports the defence capabilities of Taiwan (15th). It maintains close partnerships with other players, such as Singapore (8th).