Reform or repression: what will the next five years bring for China?

David Shambaugh says in dismantling the old power bases, Xi Jinping has also severely weakened the bureaucratic institutions built up to prevent the over-concentration of power in one man

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A portrait of Chinese President Xi Jinping is displayed at an exhibition in Beijing showcasing China's progress in the past five years, ahead of the 19th party congress that will begin next week. Photo: AFP

Published: 2:00pm, 12 Oct 2017Updated: 1:38pm, 20 Oct 2017

Party congresses in China, which occur at five-year intervals, tend to be of two varieties: consolidating or transitional. Those that occur at 10-year intervals allow for a transition of the Communist Party leadership from one general secretary to another, and often one political generation to another. Interim congresses – such as the upcoming 19th – are more about the consolidation of power by the incumbent leader and his agenda.

This will certainly be the case this time – with all signs pointing to an impressive solidification of power by Xi Jinping. Xi seems poised for a clean sweep over personnel and policy, and the congress will certainly portray the party and the country as moving inexorably towards greater wealth and power, reform and opening, international standing, and implementation of “Xi Jinping Thought” (which is likely to be written into the party constitution, placing Xi on a par with Chairman Mao).

While the narrative of a strong and forward-moving China will be prominent, a variety of unresolved questions and issues underlie the veneer of unity and purpose that the congress will present to the world.

Concerning top party personnel, there are a number of uncertainties, given that roughly half of both the Central Committee and Politburo members will change, as well as five of the seven Politburo Standing Committee members. All analysts anticipate many of these top positions will be filled by Xi’s acolytes – mainly men who previously worked with him in Zhejiang or Fujian.

Friends in high places: Xi Jinping’s determined path to control

Rumours fly about who will get what post. Other than the premiership – still uncertain and contested among Li Keqiang, Wang Qishan and Wang Yang – and the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection portfolio (where Xi’s right-hand man Li Zhanshu seems to have a lock on the top post), the others are all essentially interchangeable parts and musical chairs. It doesn’t really matter which institutional portfolios Wang Huning, Han Zheng, Zhao Leji, Chen Miner, Hu Chunhua, Liu Qibao, Cai Qi, and Sun Chunlan get, as they all lack political gravitas and defer to Xi.