North Korea nuclear stand-off highlights the dangers of miscalculation
Alek Chance says that in tense times, such as the impasse over Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and missile testing, even precautionary moves by one party may send a signal of imminent danger to the other side
Even if risky threats can at times cause an adversary to back down, there is also the possibility that the situation will escape human control.
As tensions between Pyongyang and Washington rise, different kinds of miscalculation can arise from issues of imperfect knowledge and structural forces that limit statesmen’s options, creating dangerous risks.
The possibility that a missile test might not be perfectly discernible from a missile attack is one such example of this problem, which is only exacerbated in a crisis environment.
A look at the Cuban missile crisis reveals how random occurrences and incomplete information can have dangerous implications during times of tension. To a mind preoccupied with a heightened sense of threat and urgency, an adversary’s long-scheduled surveillance flight or a simple technical malfunction might be misinterpreted as signs of an attack.