How the US can get Chinese and Russian support for regime change in North Korea

Richard Alan Nelson says the US should offer a ‘grand bargain’ to Beijing and Moscow: if they could help to remove the Kim regime and work towards Korean reunification, America would withdraw its military troops from the Korean peninsula

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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits a Korean People’s Army unit in an undisclosed location in North Korea. Photo: Balkis Press/Abaca Press/TNS

Published: 11:42am, 12 Sep 2017Updated: 11:42am, 12 Sep 2017

The seemingly never-ending cycle of crisis and bluster over North Korean nuclear ambitions comes down to one thing: the Kim regime based in Pyongyang wants to stay in power at any cost.

From its point of view, joining the nuclear club was a rational strategy to counter threats of regime change. US administrations since the Clinton years have employed a carrot-and-stick approach of appeasement and threat. The two decades of on-and-off negotiations by American officials with the North Koreans, to prevent nuclear weaponisation and missile development, have now been proven an abject failure.

Both China and Russia share borders with the North and are the key to any solution. They each have economic interests that favour stability in the region. For example, building gas pipelines across the North to reach the booming markets in the South is something the Russians have proposed. Those projects are not moving forward due to the volatile political situation. Without these two powers’ cooperation in pressuring the North, tensions are not likely to decrease.

Can China and Russia work together to defuse Korean peninsula’s nuclear crisis?

The unanimous United Nations Security Council vote on August 5 to impose additional sanctions on North Korea for its recent missile tests shows collaborative agreement is possible. Previous sanctions have hurt Pyongyang. An economic comparison of the two Koreas is startling: According to published 2013 figures and CIA World Factbook estimates, the gross domestic product of the much more prosperous South Korea is US$1.19 trillion, while that of North Korea is believed to be only US$33 billion. Per capita GDP for the South is US$33,200, in contrast to just US$1,800 in the North.

North Koreans dance at an event in Pyongyang on Saturday to celebrate the 69th anniversary of the North Korean government's establishment. Can negotiations ensure a united and neutral Korean peninsula? Photo: EPA-EFE/Yonhap

Why North Korea will become a nuclear power despite pressure

Despite this disparity, the North invests heavily in its military and advanced weapons programmes. The North spends an estimated 23.3 per cent of its GDP on the military, in comparison to the South’s 2.6 per cent. In terms of troops, the North has an estimated 1,190,000 active duty troops, while the South maintains only 655,000. The only reason for such high service numbers in both countries is the very palpable threat of renewed conflict.

A permanent end to the ‘problem’ of North Korea is the more desirable result

A key sticking point to any solution remains the American troop presence in South Korea, which dates back to the 1950s. About 23,500 US military personnel are there currently, and multiple installations serve as deterrents to aggression by the North.