Why China isn’t ready to be a global leader

Deng Yuwen says a quick study of the attributes of a superpower – in terms of its economy, military and idealogy, for example – shows China is nowhere near ready to take over the mantle of global leadership

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Published: 11:03am, 9 Apr 2017Updated: 6:47pm, 9 Apr 2017

History tells us that an aspiring global leader must fulfil several conditions before it can succeed. If these conditions are not met, it had better back off. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Since America’s inward shift after Donald Trump came to power, discussions about China taking the baton to become the leader of global free trade have appeared in the media. China itself, it seems, is finding it difficult to stay aloof from the clamour. Some Chinese scholars go further, advocating that China should step up to lead on global issues, replacing the US.

We live in a world dominated by these two countries, as the summit meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping (習近平) makes clear. Since his election, Trump has met the leaders of Japan, Britain and Germany, all US allies. China, by contrast, is neither friend nor foe. Considering Trump’s antagonism towards China in the first days of his presidency, the fact that the two leaders are meeting earlier rather than later underlines the weight accorded to China by the US.

It would surprise no one if China does harbour ambitions of becoming a global leader. As a matter of fact, isn’t that the role of a rising power, to challenge the current No 1 so as to replace it?

Nevertheless, no nation becomes a world leader just by wishing for it; it needs first to develop real strength. A country that ascended to global prominence before its time will invariably fall from its perch.

History tells us that an aspiring global leader must fulfil several conditions before it can succeed. If these conditions are not met, it had better back off.