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Brexit
OpinionComment

Brexit is a huge blow – for the UK, not the EU

Pascal Boniface says that, with reluctant partner London preparing to leave and uncertainties emanating from the US, the European Union is poised to make a fresh start under a new Franco-German leadership

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A pro-Europe demonstration in Berlin on March 26, defying the populists a day after the European Union marked 60 years of the twin Treaties of Rome that led to the creation of the bloc. Photo: AFP
Pascal Boniface

Many commentators see Brexit as a huge blow for the European Union and a sign of its decline. Brexit took leaders on both sides by surprise. The EU had been used to seeing its member numbers rising, from the initial six to today’s 28. For the first time in the union’s history, a country is now asking to leave. Will others follow, amid dissatisfaction with the EU and the rise of populist movements? Will it be the beginning of the EU’s demise?

Brexit is certainly bad news – but for the UK, not the EU. The pound has weakened sharply since the Brexit vote. Many jobs are being relocated to the continent. Many more will follow. Foreign direct investments are retreating and the UK faces a £60 billion (HK$582 billion) divorce bill.

‘No turning back’: Britain initiates divorce from EU, triggering two years of talks and an unclear future

London wants to sign new trade deals with the rest of the world, including Commonwealth nations. But without open access to the continent, it will lose its draw for a lot of foreign investors, including China. Scotland, eager to stay within the EU, wants a new independence referendum. Northern Ireland, meanwhile, fears the return of a hard border with Ireland. Therefore, the United Kingdom will be disunited.
British Prime Minister Theresa May meets Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in a Glasgow hotel on March 27, ahead of preparing to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to leave the EU. Sturgeon is leading demands for a second independence referendum for Scotland, after the first one was defeated in September 2014. Photo: Reuters
British Prime Minister Theresa May meets Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in a Glasgow hotel on March 27, ahead of preparing to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to leave the EU. Sturgeon is leading demands for a second independence referendum for Scotland, after the first one was defeated in September 2014. Photo: Reuters
A UK outside the EU is less relevant for many countries. Even though US President Donald Trump has declared his support for Brexit, the UK will become a less important ally for Washington. Former French president Charles de Gaulle once said the UK was America’s Trojan horse in Europe. No longer part of the EU, the British will appear less interesting to a Washington thus deprived of strong leverage over Brussels.
A UK outside the EU is less relevant for many countries

For the EU, less should be better. The UK has always been a reluctant partner, mostly blocking any initiative discussed at the European level. Without the UK, it will be much easier to launch new projects with a core group of countries really interested in European cooperation. Brexit also gives France an enhanced status, as it will be the only EU member with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

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