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US-China relations
Opinion

In the Trump era, we can’t rule out war between China and the US, whether over trade or security

Deng Yuwen says direct conflict is possible between the two powers – with their vastly different models – when distrust runs so deep. A Trump presidency may well send the two tumbling into a Thucydides trap

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Deng Yuwen says direct conflict is possible between the two powers – with their vastly different models – when distrust runs so deep. A Trump presidency may well send the two tumbling into a Thucydides trap
Deng Yuwen
Any strike by America, whether to launch a trade war or in an act of strategic provocation, is likely to be fierce. And Beijing is bound to fight back hard. Illustration: Craig Stephens
Any strike by America, whether to launch a trade war or in an act of strategic provocation, is likely to be fierce. And Beijing is bound to fight back hard. Illustration: Craig Stephens
The “Thucydides trap”, a scenario in the study of international relations, warns of the attendant danger of war when a rising power rivals a ruling power. With Donald Trump as US president, the behaviour and policies of the new administration have greatly increased the possibility of the US and China falling into such a trap.

In a short space of time, Trump has shown the world his way of working. In terms of political integrity, he is fulfilling his campaign promises. But the world is watching in alarm because, as foreign policy, those promises are rather terrifying. Trump has yet to turn his various complaints about China into actual policy, but this only puts the world on edge. Any strike by America, whether to launch a trade war or in an act of strategic provocation, is likely to be fierce. And Beijing is bound to fight back hard.

Why the world has reason to fear Donald Trump’s trade tantrums

Worryingly, Trump’s chief strategist Steve Bannon defines the US-China relationship as confrontational and predicts a war on the South China Sea in the next five to 10 years. Given the deep-rooted mutual distrust and structural contradictions between the two countries, it would not be too surprising if friction, and even small-scale military confrontation, occurs in the next 10 years.
Fu Ying, a vice-minister of foreign affairs, speaks in 2015 at a press conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Fu wrote last year that she believed friction between the two countries and America’s ramped-up efforts to “contain” China in recent years stemmed from America’s disappointment with China. Photo: Simon Song
Fu Ying, a vice-minister of foreign affairs, speaks in 2015 at a press conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Fu wrote last year that she believed friction between the two countries and America’s ramped-up efforts to “contain” China in recent years stemmed from America’s disappointment with China. Photo: Simon Song
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