Why China’s two-child policy is failing the reality test

Stuart Gietel-Basten says it is little surprise that the shift has not sparked a major baby boom, as low birth rates have more to do with the lack of comprehensive support structures than parents’ reluctance to expand their families

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China’s strict one-child policy, introduced in 1979, was fully relaxed on January 1 last year amid concerns over a shrinking workforce, greying population and gender imbalance. Photo: Reuters

Published: 10:00am, 4 Feb 2017Updated: 7:37pm, 4 Feb 2017

Recently, the Post led with the headline: “China’s birthrate still too low, despite two-child policy”. Figures released by Beijing indicated that the number of births coming after the national shift of policy suggested the rush to have more children was not, perhaps, as universally felt as had been hoped.

For many demographers of China, this is little surprise. Studies have shown the underlying context of low fertility in urban China is not dissimilar to other settings in Asia, such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea. These drivers include high living costs (especially housing), fragile work for younger people, weak state support, high levels of gender inequality and a work culture that is not family friendly.

Given that those most affected by the shift to a national two-child policy are urban couples, it is no surprise that the response was relatively muted.

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But this is not about being proved right. It is more about addressing this rather more fundamental question about the birthrate being “too low”.

Maternity matrons learn to take care of babies during training classes in Beijing in 2015, with demand for their services expected to increase after China had abandoned its decades-old one-child policy. Photo: AP

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When we say that something is “too low” or “too high”, this clearly assumes that there is some “optimal” figure to aim for. In terms of fertility, it is often implied that this is the so-called “replacement rate” where conditions of fertility and mortality mean that populations can replace themselves. In advanced economies such as China, this means a fertility rate of just over two children per woman.

The characteristics and productivity of the Chinese workforce in 2035 are going to be just as important as its total size

Yet, all of this seems a little arbitrary. The key reason for increasing fertility is, supposedly, that it reduces dependency – namely the burden of distributing resources from the working-age population to the older population. However, the critical point to remember is that children born today will not be entering the labour market for at least 16 years – maybe 20. As such, in order to have any effect on dependency ratios, a multi-decade perspective must be taken. To assume that other factors will not change in relation to productivity, the characteristics of the workforce and so on, especially in the context of huge improvements in education and skills, is naive at best.

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In other words, the characteristics (and hence the productivity) of the Chinese workforce in 2035 is going to be just as important – if not more so – as its total size.

This point really goes to the heart of what the “right” fertility rate is. The number of people is much less important than their characteristics – whether they are well educated, more highly skilled, show an entrepreneurial spirit, and so on.

Couples in China would like to have two children. But the practicalities of life mean this is either unfeasible, or that the sacrifices required are too great

Crucially, though, it is also important to examine the flip side of the coin. While the productivity of the working-age population can be just as important as its size, so too can the characteristics of the older population. Sure, the Chinese pension system needs radical reform; and a sea-change is required to tackle old-age poverty. But, we shouldn’t forget that China has some of the highest personal savings rates in the world. Also, for its income level, the health of older Chinese is good on a global comparison.