Is Taiwan the trump card in Sino-US relations?

Wenran Jiang says as shocking as Donald Trump’s challenge to the decades-old US stance may seem, Washington’s military and commercial interests in Taiwan could well play a role

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Published: 10:02am, 18 Dec 2016Updated: 6:00pm, 18 Dec 2016

Now that Trump has decided to bring Taiwan back as a negotiating card in US-China relations before he takes office, Beijing has taken a firm stand that the one-China principle is non-negotiable. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Donald Trump’s off-the-cuff remarks and late night tweets have flummoxed observers. The US President-elect’s selections for his new cabinet include both hawks and doves on China and Russia, sending out mixed signals on the future of US relations with the two world powers. His unprecedented phone conversation with Taiwan’s president has raised a storm of controversy: is he a “child in terms of foreign policy” as the Global Times says, or a Machiavellian negotiator? Signs are he is set to deliberately undo the traditional US policy towards China.

After a carefully coordinated call with President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan, Trump now claims his administration may not be “bound by a ‘one-China’ policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade”.

Watch: Beijing says Trump call was “petty action” by Taiwan

From the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to the Paris climate deal, Trump has targeted many of President Barack Obama’s signature policies, but his sharpest attacks on a foreign country have focused on China. His accusations range from “raping America,” “currency manipulator,” “greatest jobs theft in history,” “unfair taxes on our companies” and military build-up in the South China Sea, to not helping the US at all on North Korea.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton jokes with a giant image of President Barack Obama that was handed to her by a supporter as she addresses the crowd at Daytona Beach, Florida, on October 29. Photo: TNS

‘I don’t know why we have to be bound by a one-China policy’: Trump questions decades-long stance

Surprising as his comments might seem, Trump’s China policy orientation has its roots in the Obama administration. Obama pursued the “pivot to Asia”, a strategic “rebalancing” of US interests from Europe and the Middle East towards East Asia, as advocated by then secretary of state Hillary Clinton. The US strengthened its military alliance with Japan and South Korea, announced the deployment of the THAAD anti-missile system in the Korean peninsula, stepped up military cooperation with Australia and the Philippines, improved relations with Vietnam and India, and repeatedly sent its navy and air force to the South China Sea – all viewed by Washington as necessary to counter China’s assertiveness, but seen by Beijing as measures to contain China’s rise.

Watch: US air power on display in war games over Pacific

Obama took the lead in negotiating the TPP, a 12-country trade bloc without China and in rivalry with the Beijing-led 15-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, so that “China doesn’t set the rules in that region, we do”.

What is certain is that Trump’s dealings with Beijing will begin with more confrontation

Yet, at the same time, Obama actively engaged China, from regular summit meetings with President Xi Jinping (習近平) to the annual high-level US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue.

Trump’s latest comments and moves on China show he has been briefed by his transition team, consisting of his own and Obama’s officials, as confirmed by his campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway. While Trump picked Iowa Governor Terry Branstad – who has known Xi for more than 30 years and claimed US-China ties must improve – as ambassador to Beijing, it is far from certain that the current engagement framework will continue.