The US is in no position to lecture Beijing on the South China Sea, given its patchy record on international law
Mark Shulman says political will, not an international court ruling, is the best hope for a solution to the conflicting territorial claims involving China and the Philippines
A panel of the UN Permanent Court of Arbitration appears poised to issue a decision on “maritime jurisdiction” over waters claimed by the Philippines and China. Based on my understanding of the facts, the process and the law, I expect that China’s claims will be repudiated, and the Philippines will prevail.
Such a decision, of course, does not mean the end to the story. No one expects China to pack up its man-made islands and go home. What will happen when a panel whose own jurisdiction has been denied by Beijing issues a ruling intended to bind China and cap its regional ambitions? Will the newest great power abide by the rule of international law? How will others respond? On the answer to these questions, the fate of nations rests.
US aircraft carriers start drills off the Philippines
The United States has been standing firmly beside – and sometimes in front of – its erstwhile colony, the Philippines. And as if the stakes were not already high enough, some prominent Americans (not President Barack Obama) have framed the dispute as one about whether a rising China is a nation that complies with international law or is a rogue state and presumably a potential threat to international peace and security more generally.