Whether it’s Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton as the next US president, Asia is in for a security shake-up

Manjit Bhatia says given the geopolitical and economic realities, the US is likely to play a diminished role in the region amid China’s rise

Reading Time:4 minutes

Why you can trust SCMP

Manjit Bhatia

Published: 1:31pm, 8 May 2016Updated: 3:08pm, 19 Sep 2016

Asia should expect even Hillary Clinton to waver on, and rethink, the “pivot to Asia”. For, just as there have been strengths, there are today more weaknesses in American exceptionalism.

As the US presidential election inches towards November’s finale, the lame-duck Barack Obama is already counting down his days. He’ll consider the legacy he will bequeath from his eight years in the White House, plus his presidential memoirs and library, on retiring in January. Yet the thorny work of implementing US policy lies frightfully ahead. In Asia, it’s fraught with jeopardy.

The dogfight between billionaire Republican Donald Trump and the Democrats’ Hillary Clinton is all set to intensify. And Asia’s leaders must be wondering whether they ought to focus more on both contenders. Because, what if Trump becomes the 45th US president: will China usurp the Asian (dis)order by default since Trump plans to return America to isolationism? Or is US power hamstrung, no matter who is the next president?

Whatever becomes of Trump’s triumphalism, Asia should worry

Asia is plagued by problems. For starters, it’s struggling to generate sustainable growth, with economies showing glaring structural weaknesses. Governments are also trying to stave off more zealous geopolitical competition amid China’s rise. Meanwhile, Beijing scarcely looks like it is backing down on territorial sovereignty issues. And it will keep thumbing its nose at the US.

Whatever becomes of Trump’s triumphalism, Asia should worry. His fire and brimstone talk – by a man used to bluster backed by his financial clout – is predictable, but illogical. Republican diehards may yet wise up and stop him dragging America down perilous policy adventures and wrecking America further.

Supporters of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump hold their hands to their chest as the national anthem is played at a campaign rally in Concord, New Hampshire. Photo: Reuters

‘We have the power over China’, says Trump in presidential-style address accusing Beijing of ‘economic assault’ against US

Trump’s jingoism isn’t any more sensible than the possibility of war with China. Asians knows this, but are happy to be entertained by Trump cranking up his “Make America Great Again” neo-nationalist evangelism.