Sooner or later, Tsai must face up to Taiwan’s political and economic realities

The impact of Tsai Ing-wen’s election as Taiwan’s president will, of course, be profound. Tsai was actually in charge of cross-strait affairs in both the Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian administrations. She was the creator of the “one country on each side” concept when Lee was leader of Taiwan. Ideologically, Tsai is even more inclined towards independence than Chen; her ideology is probably closer to Lee’s. However, she will need to adjust her pro-independence stance after coming to power, even though she might be reluctant to do so.

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Tsai has been trying every possible way to dishonour the “1992 consensus” [an understanding that there is only “one China”, but each side can have its own interpretation], saying that it is only one option. In fact, Taiwan has no options. Mainland China has already grown very strong; strong enough to stop Taiwan gaining independence. When Ma Ying-jeou and Xi Jinping (習近平) met in Singapore recently, they both took the “1992 consensus” as the bottom line, which mainland China considers to be the line that Taiwan cannot cross.

So the path ahead for Tsai as the island’s president will be very rough; she is pro-independence, ideologically but this will not be an option, practically. The only way forward is to find a direction that is most beneficial for Taiwan as it moves towards unification. Seeking independence would only lead to a dead end. So let’s see how Tsai adjusts her path.

Economically, Taiwan relies heavily on mainland China. Where Taiwan’s development is concerned, it should be realised that capitalism has its own logic which conflicts with political ideology. Tsai has to be realistic about this.

Tsai may well make some risky moves during her early time in office and will not admit wholly to the 1992 consensus. She will only adjust her course after experiencing twists and turns – if not major difficulties – in Taiwan’s relations with the US, Japan and mainland China. This is political logic – especially given that she is a leader inclined towards the ideology of independence.

On the cross-strait issue, we need to remember that the US – as well as Taiwan – would benefit most if Tsai could attain peaceful independence during her term. But, of course, there is no way China would allow that to happen. On the premise that Taiwan will not gain independence, maintaining the status quo will be in the best interests of the US. This is the bottom line for both Washington and Beijing.

The problem is that Sino-US relations have been far from sound of late, following Washington’s strategic misjudgment in which it considers China to be challenging its hegemony. This has led the US to seek to constrain China by any means. Against this backdrop, Taiwan becomes an ace in the pack for the US. But the reality is different: How willing is the US to have an open showdown with China over Taiwan?