Tsai Ing-wen's likely victory in Taiwan means cross-strait pragmatism needed
Bonnie Glaser and Jacqueline Vitello say Xi Jinping's tough stance on Taiwan could stoke political fires again if the DPP leader becomes president, despite her status quo pledge
Taiwan's presidential election is six months away, but it seems increasingly likely that Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party will win. Among those watching the possible return of the DPP to power is the central government, which worries that, if elected, Tsai will deny that the two sides of the strait belong to one China and pursue de jure independence.
This fear derives from Tsai's history as the creator of the "two states theory" in the Lee Teng-hui era as well as her unwillingness to accept the existence of "one China" even as she pledges to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.
Beijing could react harshly if Tsai is elected. It could take punitive economic measures, suspend communication and cooperation mechanisms, steal away some of Taiwan's diplomatic allies, or even use military coercion or force.
President Xi Jinping's reaction to a Tsai victory should not be underestimated. When it comes to sovereignty issues, the Chinese leader has shown little willingness to compromise. Since taking power in 2012, Xi has sent tough signals to Taiwan, and these warnings have intensified in the run-up to the elections.