Tsai Ing-wen's likely victory in Taiwan means cross-strait pragmatism needed
Bonnie Glaser and Jacqueline Vitello say Xi Jinping's tough stance on Taiwan could stoke political fires again if the DPP leader becomes president, despite her status quo pledge
Taiwan's presidential election is six months away, but it seems increasingly likely that Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party will win. Among those watching the possible return of the DPP to power is the central government, which worries that, if elected, Tsai will deny that the two sides of the strait belong to one China and pursue de jure independence.
This fear derives from Tsai's history as the creator of the "two states theory" in the Lee Teng-hui era as well as her unwillingness to accept the existence of "one China" even as she pledges to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.
Beijing could react harshly if Tsai is elected. It could take punitive economic measures, suspend communication and cooperation mechanisms, steal away some of Taiwan's diplomatic allies, or even use military coercion or force.
President Xi Jinping's reaction to a Tsai victory should not be underestimated. When it comes to sovereignty issues, the Chinese leader has shown little willingness to compromise. Since taking power in 2012, Xi has sent tough signals to Taiwan, and these warnings have intensified in the run-up to the elections.
The PLA's most recent drills took place in late May and early June, which coincided with a visit Tsai made to the US
In the aftermath of the Sunflower Movement by students in Taiwan and the Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong, with the popularity ratings of both President Ma Ying-jeou and his Kuomintang dwindling ahead of the upcoming presidential elections, Xi spoke on the "Taiwan question" in March.
Addressing a panel discussion with members of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Xi expressed his strong distaste for "the separatist forces of 'Taiwanese independence' and their activities", which he claimed "threaten national sovereignty and territorial integrity".