Democrats still have room to manoeuvre within nominating committee for 2017 election

The emotional polarisation between the pan-democratic and pro-Beijing camps over Beijing's decision on political reform for Hong Kong totally ignores the political space available for democrats.

Moderate pro-democracy candidates still have a good chance of getting through the first phase and being considered by the 1,200-member nominating committee. There's also the possibility that, under certain circumstances, a moderate candidate could be put forward by the committee for direct election in 2017.

So, how can such a possibility be enhanced? First and foremost, critics of the National People's Congress Standing Committee decision ignore the fact that the 50 per cent threshold is only a requirement for nomination for the election, not a requirement to be considered by the committee. So, if the entry threshold can be set low enough, say, one-eighth of committee members, that would probably be enough to ensure at least one moderate democrat's name was put forward.

To take the 2012 chief executive election as a reference point, Albert Ho Chun-yan made it through to become one of the final three, together with pro-establishment candidates Henry Tang Ying-yen and Leung Chun-ying.

Second, critics have also turned a blind eye to the fact that elections are based on the assumption of uncertainty, not certainty. If uncertainty characterises the chief executive election, how can we guarantee that the final two to three candidates, who are very likely pro-establishment, would not shift their stance to gain support from pro-democracy voters in the direct election?

In the 2012 election, Leung won partly because of the scandals involving Tang and partly because Tang tried to seek the support of some pro-democracy Election Committee members. As a result, the pro-Beijing elite, concerned about Tang's tactical shift, consolidated their support for Leung through Beijing's hidden mobilisation of some Election Committee members.

In the West, elections are characterised by their uncertain outcomes. Here in Hong Kong, as long as voters remain free to cast their ballots as they wish, and the result is not manipulated by political forces, there's no saying what any pro-establishment candidate put forward by the nominating committee may do to win the election. In that respect, Beijing's decision is by no means the end for pan-democrats.