For breathable air, China must reduce the costs of its growth

The visible effect of pollution in China is undeniable. I recently spent two weeks in Beijing, where I grew up, with my family. For the first seven days, the sun did not shine. A hazy layer of greyish-white smog hung over us. Every morning, I checked the air quality index, which uses guidelines set by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), on my smartphone app and the results were alarming.

Air quality came in at around 300. According to the EPA, levels between 301 and 500 are considered "hazardous", meaning people should steer clear of all outdoor activity. Essentially, it's like breathing in the fumes from a forest fire. (For comparison, Boston's air quality is about 45.)

But, thankfully, it appears that China, the world's largest producer of atmospheric carbon dioxide - accounting for nearly a quarter of global emissions - is starting to take this issue more seriously. In spring, the Financial Times reported that China is considering an absolute cap on carbon emissions in advance of the climate talks in Paris in 2015, though officials later stressed they were nowhere near a decision. The cap would be a remarkable policy shift for the country, which for years has resisted international efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions, claiming that they unfairly thwart the economic growth of developing countries.

In China, coal is king. Chinese gross domestic product as a share of global GDP hovers around 14 per cent. But China's coal consumption is 47 per cent of world consumption. As a source of energy, coal is cheap and widely available. It is also terrible for the environment: Coal plants are one of the top sources of carbon dioxide emissions, the primary cause of global warming. Burning coal is also a primary cause of acid rain, smog and toxic air pollution.

It's easy to say that China ought to shift towards renewable energy, such as solar, wind or hydroelectric power. The problem is that diversifying energy sources is always a relative concept. Renewable energy sources draw a lot attention in the US, but in reality they represent only a small share of consumption. The share is even smaller in China.

One case in point: while China is a major producer of solar panels, it hardly uses them at all. (Yet, manufacturing solar panels requires a great deal of raw materials and thus generates a lot of pollution. It's a folly that China makes these panels at great environmental expense and that all the environmental benefits the panels generate go to the countries it exports them to.)

The fact is that an absolute cap on carbon emissions holds the most promise for effectively easing China's reliance on coal and reducing its carbon footprint. There is no way to achieve this, however, without the country making dramatic changes to its growth strategy. It's a politically and economically complicated task, but it can be done. Here is a road map: