China sees in Europe a political and cultural partner
Lanxin Xiang says with Sino-US relations at a crossroads, and American world influence on the wane, China increasingly sees Europe as a political and cultural ally
Not so long ago, China's policy elite were still debating whether the nation's relationship with the US would remain "the most important among all important bilateral ties".
As early as 2003, I was among the first to put forward the idea that China should start pursuing a westward geopolitical strategy, a Eurasian "continental strategy", and downgrade its heavy reliance on the geopolitical structure in the Asia-Pacific region. Almost all policy elite in Beijing were sceptical of this proposal at the time, but not any more.
US-China relations are at a crossroads. China's economy is now the world's second largest and is projected to surpass the US to become number one in either 2018, 2025 or 2030, depending on who you listen to. One thing is certain, however: China has rapidly increased its political and military clout commensurate with its economic power.
From the US perspective, the relationship has been characterised as a "Thucydidean Trap", when a rising power challenges the established one. Thus, the greatest challenge is finding a realpolitik framework in which both nations can work towards avoiding strategic miscalculations in the future.
Naturally, the American approach is to emphasise military balance, while China's leaders have proposed that China and the US seek a "new type of great power relationship". But nothing has come of this idea, as there has been little meeting of minds between the two.
China's strategy, as viewed in Washington, is all about achieving its long-term goal of forcing the US to cede its role as the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific. Beijing seems to believe the time has not yet arrived. To escape the (Thucydidean) trap, which usually leads to war, Beijing is seen to be biding its time while actively preparing for the inevitable conflict.
