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China’s brokerage crackdown: banks cut stock forecasts for Futu, Tiger

CCB and Goldman Sachs slash brokerage valuations, profit forecasts after regulatory action on unauthorised cross-border trading

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The logo of Futu Holdings is seen in a storefront in Hong Kong on May 26, 2026. Photo: Sam Tsang
Peggy Ye

Analysts lowered their valuations on Chinese online brokerages after Beijing unveiled a crackdown on unauthorised cross-border securities businesses, warning the tighter rules could slow profit growth and raise overseas customer acquisition costs.

CCB International on Wednesday cut its target price for Futu Holdings by almost a third to US$150 from US$220, although it maintained an “outperform” rating on the stock.

“Regulatory scrutiny is a hit to target valuation, though we view the penalty amount and upcoming loss of business as being manageable for Futu,” said Lawrence Chen, a Hong Kong-based analyst at CCB.

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Eight Chinese regulators led by the China Securities Regulatory Commission last week unveiled a rectification plan targeting unauthorised cross-border securities, futures and fund operations. Authorities proposed penalties of 1.85 billion yuan (US$272 million) for Futu and 410 million yuan for Tiger Brokers.
US investment bank Goldman Sachs on Tuesday halved its 12-month target price on Futu to US$102.13 from US$210.47 and downgraded the stock to “neutral”, citing “elevated regulatory uncertainty” following China’s latest campaign against unauthorised cross-border securities businesses, which could involve up to US$32 billion in assets.
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Goldman also maintained a “sell” rating on UP Fintech, operator of Tiger Brokers, with a target price of US$4.10. Goldman cut its 2026 net profit forecasts by 25 per cent for Futu and 60 per cent for Tiger.

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