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China leads the industry that powers electric cars by a country mile. What will it take for global battery makers to catch up?

  • China has 72 gigawatt hours of domestic battery demand, controls 80 per cent of the world’s capacity for raw material refining, with the capacity to produce 77 per cent of worldwide battery cells and 60 per cent for components
  • Control over the global supply of EV batteries are expected to remain in the hands of the Chinese, Japanese and South Korean producers, analysts said

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The world needs to produce 10,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) of batteries every year for 15 years to convert the entire global fleet of vehicles into electric. Illustration: Perry Tse

This is the second of a three-part series on the push for electrification in the world’s largest vehicle market, looking at the battery makers that have ridden on the coattails of carmakers to the top of the world for powering electric vehicles. The first instalment of the series on the push of electric cars into rural China can be found here.

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More than a century ago, the Iowan state capital of Des Moines was the global hub for electric vehicles, with more than 30,000 horseless carriages produced at the industry’s peak in 1912.

William Morrison, a Scottish immigrant and chemist, had invented a horseless carriage powered by 24 lead-acid battery cells that could carry 12 passengers at a top speed of 20 miles per hour for 50 miles (80 kilometres) before recharging. In the century since, Morrison’s self-powered electric carriage – known as the auto-mobile – would be replaced by vehicles that run on oil-guzzling internal combustion engines (ICE), as the abundance of crude oil and the growth of the refining industry made hydrocarbons the fuel of choice.

Now, the world is returning full circle to the electric car, as concerns about gaseous emissions and their impact on climate change compel global governments to find alternatives to petrol-guzzlers. China, whose passenger car market only took off two decades ago, has not only taken the global lead on the adoption and manufacturing of electric vehicles (EV), but also its most valuable component – the battery – which makes up 30 to 50 per cent of their value.

“For the next 15 years, China, the current industry leader, will remain in the fast lane and dominate every step of the value chain, while Europe will be following closely behind China,” said Ryan Castilloux, managing director of rare earth and electric battery metals consultancy Adamas Intelligence. “Tesla will remain the giant in the EV space, but at the national level China is also a giant.”

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A Sturgis Morrison electric carriage in 1895, modified with extra batteries under the front row and the back to give additional power for he Times-Herald automobile race. Source: Unknown author, Wikipedia.
A Sturgis Morrison electric carriage in 1895, modified with extra batteries under the front row and the back to give additional power for he Times-Herald automobile race. Source: Unknown author, Wikipedia.
Chinese battery makers will maintain their dominance in an industry where the operating and planned production capacity may more than quadruple in a decade, even as their European and American competitors expand to catch up, said analysts.
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