appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Peggy Ye

China’s carmakers are on track to capture about one-third of the global auto market by 2030 and generate most of their profits overseas, according to UBS, underscoring the resilience of the country’s electric vehicle (EV) advantage despite mounting trade barriers in the West.
The Swiss bank said its forecast had remained unchanged from two years ago, even as Chinese carmakers accelerated factory construction in Europe and some global rivals scaled back electrification plans.
“The main drag was due to Europe’s slowdown of EV adoption, and tariffs and protectionism against Chinese EVs,” said Paul Gong, an analyst at UBS specialising in Chinese EVs. “I think 2024 progress was slower than expected, but recent signs have shown some catch-up.”
UBS estimated that overseas markets now accounted for about 20 per cent of industry sales and as much as 50 per cent of earnings for some Chinese carmakers, highlighting their growing reliance on international expansion as domestic competition intensified.
Industry executives said the forecast did not suggest China would dominate the market alone. Instead, they argued that global competition was increasingly coalescing around a small number of large EV platforms – a shift that still left room for emerging players such as India.

“The fact that [China] has been learning aggressively means that they’re going to have a dominant position and market share,” said Frank Diana, managing partner and principal futurist at Tata Consultancy Services. “But they’re not alone … you will see the rise of other players in the space.”
Diana advises carmakers and manufacturers on technology strategy and digital transformation at Tata Consultancy Services, India’s largest IT services company and part of the Tata Group, a conglomerate with interests spanning energy, steel and hospitality.
India is among the markets beginning to close the gap – at least domestically. “Tata Motors and Mahindra are the two Indian companies that have rapidly grown their market share in the last five to six years,” said V.G. Ramakrishnan, managing partner at automotive consultancy Avanteum Advisors.
Both companies have expanded their EV portfolios and pursued overseas acquisitions, including Tata Motors’ ownership of Jaguar Land Rover and Mahindra’s purchases of South Korea’s SsangYong and Italy’s Pininfarina.
“However, these investments have not fully translated to these companies becoming global players as Brand Tata or Brand Mahindra,” Ramakrishnan said. “While both companies have an international presence through exports, they are not significant players in the global market.”
Against that backdrop, Diana said China was likely to remain the dominant force in EVs as the industry consolidated around a limited number of large platforms.
“So there will be consolidation even at the EV market level, and you end up with 10 to 15 platform orchestrators made up of [original equipment manufacturers and] big technology companies,” he said.

Analysts said China’s staying power was rooted not just in scale, but in years of early investment that translated into faster learning cycles, vertically integrated supply chains and cost advantages that were difficult to replicate.
“The EV supply chain is dominated by Chinese companies,” Ramakrishnan said. “The India EV supply chain, including electronics, is imported from China.”
To blunt trade barriers, Chinese carmakers are increasingly shifting from exports to local production. Thailand already hosts full production plants of SAIC, Great Wall Motor and BYD, while Brazil and Hungary are set to add major BYD and GWM facilities by the middle of the decade.
That expansion could eventually intensify pressure on India’s domestic champions. Tata Motors, India’s EV market leader, was targeting EVs to make up 30 per cent of its domestic sales by 2030, though analysts warned that reduced subsidies, narrowing tax incentives and gaps in charging infrastructure could slow growth.
Ramakrishnan said Tata’s EV market share had already declined year on year as rivals such as Maruti Suzuki and MG Motor rolled out new models.
Chinese brands remain keen to deepen their India presence. BYD operates through a joint venture with limited sales volume and no manufacturing footprint, while Chery and Great Wall Motor are seeking entry should regulatory conditions ease.
“As and when [Chinese brands] come in, the customers will accept these brands,” Ramakrishnan said.
As Chinese carmakers globalised, competition would increasingly hinge on platforms and partnerships rather than individual markets, Diana said, pointing to Africa as the next strategic battleground.
“If you are able to create a relationship with South Africa, and you form a pathway into the broader African market, then you’ve expanded your space,” he said. “So it focuses on relationships, strategic partnerships, not just technology and supply chain.”


Tesla revives China discounts; Iran war drives shift to electric cars: 7 EV reads

China’s five-year plan for the new-energy vehicle sector

No pit stops: Chinese coal mine makes big upgrade with autonomous electric trucks

‘Key pillar’: the 5-year powerhouse plan for China’s car industry

Electric & new energy vehicles

Full throttle: Chinese EV makers to corner one-third of global market by 2030, UBS says

China’s carmakers are projected to generate most of their profits overseas. Photo: Reuters

Global competition is increasingly coalescing around a small number of large electric vehicle platforms, industry executives say. Photo: Reuters

As Chinese carmakers globalise, competition will increasingly hinge on platforms and partnerships rather than individual markets, says Frank Diana of Tata Consultancy Services. Photo: Peggy Ye

Sales of high-end cars tumble in China as affordable local brands trump European marques

Porsche’s all-electric Macan Turbo sports car is displayed at the 17th Beijing International Automotive Exhibition (Auto China 2024) on April 23, 2025. Photo: Shutterstock

BMW’s i7 model on display during the Shanghai Auto Show on April 25, 2025. Photo: EPA-EFE

Prince William (left) and China’s President Xi Jinping (second left) with an Aston Martin DB10 car at Lancaster House in London on October 21, 2015. Photo: Reuters

A Mercedes Benz G Wagon on display during the Shanghai Auto Show on April 23, 2025. Photo: EPA-EFE

A Bentley GT car on display during the China Auto Show in Beijing on April 26, 2024. Photo: AP

A Lamborghini in a dealership in Beijing on November 5, 2024. Photo: Getty Images

Hong Kong to add more compatible chargers for Chinese EVs as mainland cars arrive

The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge. Photo: Xinhua

Nearly 100 mainland cars arrived in the city on the first day of the scheme, according to authorities. Photo: Handout

Mainland Chinese drivers enter the city via the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge. Photo: Handout

Global firms turn to M&A in EVs and biotech to deepen China investment: KPMG

Healthcare and life sciences are the top growth prospects over the next three to five years, according to multinational corporations. Photo: Xinhua



The industrial manufacturing and automotive sectors are high on the growth list of multinational corporations. Photo: Xinhua

Beijing approves first 2 L3 autonomous cars in leap towards ‘hands-off’ driving

The Baidu-BAIC Arcfox robotaxi is seen on the road. Photo: Shutterstock Images

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology headquarters in Beijing. Photo: Handout

The Changan factory for new energy vehicles in Chongqing municipality. Photo: Xinhua

Xpeng steps up ‘go global’ drive with Malaysian EV assembly hub for Southeast Asian market

Workers conduct final checks on an Xpeng new energy car at the firm’s plant in Zhaoqing,  Guangdong province, on October 9, 2023. Photo: Xinhua 

The Xpeng factory in Zhaoqing, Guangdong province, November 19, 2020. Photo: SCMP

Prospective customers check out Xpeng’s electric vehicles at its headquarters in Guangzhou, in China’s Guangdong province, November 5, 2025. Photo: AFP

Business

China EVs

Companies

Markets

News

China Future Tech

Tech

Big Tech

Tech Trends

Tech War

Analysts see China’s EV edge enduring, citing overseas profits and supply chain strengths despite tariffs and Western protectionism


Analysts see China’s EV edge enduring, citing overseas profits and supply chain strengths despite tariffs and Western protectionism.


Full throttle: Chinese EV makers to corner one-third of global market by 2030, UBS says

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts see China’s EV edge enduring, citing overseas profits and supply chain strengths despite tariffs and Western protectionism

Analysts see China’s EV edge enduring, citing overseas profits and supply chain strengths despite tariffs and Western protectionism