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Daniel Ren

Spurred by the rising popularity of electric vehicles (EVs), Chinese carmakers are consolidating their foothold in the global auto market, prompting international banks like Goldman Sachs to significantly raise their export forecasts.
Buoyant overseas shipments have also effectively created a cushion against falling domestic deliveries and an expected overall sales decline for Chinese automotive groups including BYD and Xpeng, analysts said.
“China’s new-energy vehicle exports have been accelerating, with 63 per cent year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2026, driven by increasing supply of competitive models,” Goldman Sachs said in a research report released on Thursday. “We are raising our China passenger vehicle export volume by 6 to 11 per cent over 2026 to 2030, expecting 7.8 million cars in 2026 to 10 million units in 2030.”
Excluding mainland China and the US, sales of Chinese-branded cars worldwide would account for 17 per cent of the global total in 2030, it added.
The bullish forecasts by the US bank echoed a prediction made by JPMorgan, which said last month that Chinese cars would post a 150 per cent sales surge in western Europe over the three years to 2028, grabbing a 20 per cent share of the markets in countries like Germany, Italy, France and the UK with annual deliveries of 2.5 million units.
Chinese carmakers sold a total of 1 million units in western European countries last year.
China’s ­carmakers and automotive suppliers are at the vanguard of EV technology, buoyed by government support and consumer appetite for innovation.
Hoping to offset the sales dip at home, most Chinese EV makers have revved up their go-global drive by launching more models fitted with preliminary self-driving systems, digital cockpits, large panels and sometimes even on-board fridges.
Goldman Sachs said that 7.8 million Chinese-made cars, comprising petrol and electric vehicles, were expected to be shipped abroad in 2026, up 30 per cent from last year.

Among them, 3.81 million units would be either pure electric or plug-in hybrid cars, translating into a 72.4 per cent increase over 2025.
BYD, the world’s largest electric-car builder, Stellantis-backed Leapmotor and Xpeng, part owned by Volkswagen, were better positioned for overseas exposure, with accelerating export model pipelines as well as local sales networks and production, it added.
Shenzhen-based BYD now ranked in the top three in terms of car sales in eight of the 18 markets Goldman Sachs covered, compared with six markets in 2025, according to the investment bank.
Leapmotor has also reported a jump in sales from a relatively low base and is now ranked third among global EV brands in Italy.
Even after tariffs levied by the EU – 30 per cent for pure electric and 10 per cent for hybrid cars – shipping costs, and higher incentives for local dealers, Chinese assemblers still generated higher profitability in the European market, according to Nick Lai, head of auto research for the Asia-Pacific region at JPMorgan.
Chinese carmakers’ average net profit margin per vehicle stood at about 5,000 yuan (US$735), he said, adding that it could rise as much as fourfold to 20,000 yuan in overseas markets, where Chinese cars were sold at higher prices.
Goldman Sachs estimated that car sales on the mainland would drop by up to 8 per cent between 2026 and 2030 amid weaker-than-expected domestic demand.
Total production volume and wholesales of Chinese cars – including vehicles sold on the mainland and abroad – could hit 32 million units in 2030, up 0.8 per cent from 2025, the bank said in the report.


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With a boost in global exports offsetting domestic dips, banks forecast significant growth in overseas markets – especially western Europe


With a boost in global exports offsetting domestic dips, banks forecast significant growth in overseas markets – especially western Europe.


As Chinese EVs expand global footprint, banks raise export forecasts

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}With a boost in global exports offsetting domestic dips, banks forecast significant growth in overseas markets – especially western Europe

With a boost in global exports offsetting domestic dips, banks forecast significant growth in overseas markets – especially western Europe