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Peggy Ye

Hong Kong’s leading property developers are accelerating new residential launches, with two major firms unveiling plans to roll out more than 4,500 flats this year as sentiment shows signs of improvement, but analysts caution that a surge in supply may add fresh pressure to a market that has only begun to stabilise.
Developers, including Wheelock Properties and Kerry Properties, are pressing ahead with large-scale launches, adding new supply on top of still-elevated inventory from previous years.
Kerry said on Tuesday it planned to launch at least three projects involving about 3,583 units this year, including La Montagne phase 4B at the Southside, parts of Lohas Park phase 13 in Tseung Kwan O and a development on Hung Fook Street in To Kwa Wan.
Wheelock, meanwhile, said it would introduce five new projects totalling about 1,000 units, starting with phase 6 of its Southside development, which would offer 617 flats in the first quarter.
The fresh supply follows a year dominated by stock clearance. Hong Kong recorded more than 20,000 primary home sales in 2025, but more than half involved inventory carried over from previous years, with developers still offering discounts to attract buyers, according to Midland Realty.

That inventory overhang is expected to persist in 2026, even as discounts gradually narrow. Praveen Choudhary, head of Hong Kong real estate research at Morgan Stanley, said potential housing supply could reach about 28,000 units next year, but actual launches were likely to total around 14,000 to 15,000 units, broadly in line with average absorption over the past five years.
However, Choudhary said the worst of the supply pressure may be easing. “Both supply and inventory have likely peaked,” he wrote in a report on Monday, citing faster-than-expected destocking by developers, strong sell-through at new project launches and limited land sales in recent years.
Still, analysts cautioned that stronger sales did not necessarily translate into sustained price growth. At the current pace, another 12,000 to 13,000 units must be absorbed before prices could rebound more decisively, said Martin Wong, senior director at Knight Frank.
Inventory levels in 2026 were expected to return to roughly where they were about two and a half years ago, which would be “healthier, but still on the high side”, said Midland analyst Benny Sham.
Sun Hung Kai Properties’ (SHKP) recent sales illustrate both the rebound in demand and the lingering risks. The developer this week added 73 units to Sierra Sea Phase 2A, pricing the new batch about 5 per cent higher than earlier phases, though some units are on higher floors with better views. It marked a rare price increase after years of discount-led launches.
Allen Woo, general manager of sales and marketing at SHKP’s property investment department, said demand had strengthened in recent days, with market sources pointing to about 25,000 buying-intention registrations for roughly 260 units at its Sai Sha development that was ready to be released on Saturday.
Official data showed tentative signs of recovery. The city’s home price index rose to 297.3 in November, the highest level in 16 months and just shy of the 297.6 recorded in July last year, according to the Rating and Valuation Department. Still, prices remain about 26 per cent below their 2021 peak, underscoring the fragility of the rebound.
Despite the supply pressures, banks and property agencies remain cautiously optimistic. Citi forecast home prices could rise mildly by about 3 per cent in 2026, citing limited land sales and continued demand from ultra-wealthy buyers in the luxury segment.
On the more bullish side, Morgan Stanley expected prices to climb more than 10 per cent in 2026, with further gains in 2027, while Centaline and Midland projected increases of 10 per cent to 15 per cent, supported by easing interest rates and improving financial market conditions.
Additional reporting by Themis Qi


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Wheelock and Kerry plan to roll out more than 4,500 units in 2026, even as analysts warn that inventory overhang may cap price gains


Wheelock and Kerry plan to roll out more than 4,500 units in 2026, even as analysts warn that inventory overhang may cap price gains.


Hong Kong developers rush new flats as sentiment lifts, pressuring fragile recovery

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Wheelock and Kerry plan to roll out more than 4,500 units in 2026, even as analysts warn that inventory overhang may cap price gains

Wheelock and Kerry plan to roll out more than 4,500 units in 2026, even as analysts warn that inventory overhang may cap price gains