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Peggy Ye

Hong Kong’s housing rally faces a new test as investors who rode the first-half rebound become less active in quick-turn trades, leaving owner-occupiers and longer-term buyers to sustain the recovery.
Secondary home prices have continued to rise, with Centaline’s leading index climbing 0.64 per cent to 162.16 on Friday, its highest level in three years.
But the short-term trading that accelerated alongside the rebound has pulled back sharply: transactions involving homes held for less than a year fell to 99 in July, down 24 per cent from June. In March, 202 of these transactions were recorded.
Despite the decline, Centaline said the average profit per sale rose almost 10 per cent in July to HK$842,000 (US$107,400), the highest monthly average this year.
The divergence points to a market in which the gains from the first leg of the recovery have become harder to repeat through quick trades.
“Buyers are resisting chasing higher prices as rate expectations shift,” said Louis Chan Wing-kit, Asia-Pacific vice-chairman and chief executive of Centaline’s residential division.
Developers were also launching new projects at prices close to those in the secondary market, giving buyers another option and drawing some investors and short-term traders towards first-hand homes, Chan said.
Alvin Leung, senior director of project consultancy at Colliers Hong Kong, said he viewed the slowdown in speculative activity as more selective rather than a broad retreat from housing.
Residential prices continue to rise even as the volume of quick-flip transactions moderates
Alvin Leung, Colliers Hong Kong
“Speculative activity has become more selective,” Leung said, adding that investors who entered the market earlier in the year had already captured some capital gains from recovering residential prices, “naturally reducing the urgency to transact again in the near term”.
Improving economic sentiment, a stronger stock market and a robust residential rental market were supporting owner-occupier and longer-term investment demand, he said.
“Consequently, residential prices continue to rise even as the volume of quick-flip transactions moderates,” Leung said.
The remaining flipping activity has been concentrated in cheaper homes. Of 922 short-term transactions recorded in the first seven months of the year, 474 involved properties bought for less than HK$4 million. The average profit on those deals was about HK$520,000.
The biggest absolute gain in July came from a 1,288-square-foot flat at Residence Bel-Air in Pok Fu Lam. The owner sold the property for HK$37.18 million after buying it for HK$29.8 million in October, making HK$7.38 million in about 260 days.
The biggest percentage gain came from a 293-square-foot flat at Kam On Building in Sham Shui Po. Bought for HK$2.05 million in September, the unit sold for HK$3.29 million in July, generating a 60 per cent gain of HK$1.24 million in about 306 days.
At the other end of the market, just 43 of the 922 short-term transactions involved homes bought for more than HK$10 million.


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Property

Hong Kong & China

Secondary home prices are the highest in three years, but July short-term trading of those held for less than a year was half the level seen in March


Secondary home prices are the highest in three years, but July short-term trading of those held for less than a year was half the level seen in March.


Hong Kong housing rally faces test as property flippers retreat

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Secondary home prices are the highest in three years, but July short-term trading of those held for less than a year was half the level seen in March

Secondary home prices are the highest in three years, but July short-term trading of those held for less than a year was half the level seen in March