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Peggy Ye

Hong Kong’s residential property market has regained momentum in recent months amid a string of record-breaking deals. But analysts warn that the rally is likely to cool in the second half of the year, as a weaker stock market weighs on investor sentiment.
A string of huge deals in the city has generated buzz in recent days, with a five-bedroom flat at Sun Hung Kai Properties’ Cullinan Harbour in Kai Tak selling on Monday for HK$247.9 million (US$31.6 million) – a record for the project and for the district.
Last week, one of the flats at Victoria Harbour in North Point also changed hands for HK$200 million, or HK$84,282 per square foot – the highest price ever recorded in Hong Kong Island East.
These trophy deals, however, do not reflect the overall trend in the luxury market, according to analysts. Consultancy CBRE said the total value of luxury residential transactions fell 30 per cent to HK$8.76 billion in the second quarter compared with the previous three months, while the number of deals dropped from 70 to 48.
“The luxury market is closely linked to the stock market performance,” said Eddie Kwok, executive director of valuation and advisory services at CBRE Hong Kong.
The underperformance of the city’s equity market combined with mainland China’s new outbound investment rules, which kicked in on July 1, had prompted some buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, he added. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 11 per cent in the first half of the year.
The decline in transactions has yet to translate into lower prices. CBRE said luxury home prices rose about 2 per cent during the second quarter, bringing the total gains this year to 3.9 per cent. Mainland Chinese buyers accounted for about half of the deals worth more than HK$100 million, it added.
We expect the market to remain healthy, but the pace of growth will be more moderate in the second half
Rosanna Tang, Cushman & Wakefield
Analysts expect the softer sentiment to spread to the broader residential market after a surprisingly strong first half.
Home prices on the secondary market have climbed 10.4 per cent this year and are now nearly 18 per cent above their March 2025 trough, according to a report by JPMorgan published in late June. The price increase has already reached the upper end of the bank’s full-year forecast of 10-15 per cent growth.
But home-price gains were likely to slow to less than 5 per cent in the second half of the year, JPMorgan added, citing the prolonged weakness of Hong Kong equities as the biggest downside risk.
Citi also said in a report last week that it expected activity to soften in July as developers slow new launches following brisk sales, while stock-market volatility, uncertainty over mainland China’s outbound investment rules and seasonal demand for rentals encourage buyers to delay purchases.
Consultancy Cushman & Wakefield has predicted Hong Kong home prices to rise about 10 per cent this year, but said buying activity would likely ease as much of this year’s pent-up demand had already been absorbed.
“We expect the market to remain healthy, but the pace of growth will be more moderate in the second half,” said Rosanna Tang, the firm’s executive director and head of research.
JLL also expects growth to narrow later in the year, forecasting a 5 per cent to 10 per cent increase this year as inventory continues to fall and rental growth supports underlying housing demand.


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The recent rally in residential property is likely to lose steam in the second half of 2026, as a weak stock market weighs on investor sentiment


The recent rally in residential property is likely to lose steam in the second half of 2026, as a weak stock market weighs on investor sentiment.


Hong Kong’s property market set to cool despite run of record-breaking deals

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The recent rally in residential property is likely to lose steam in the second half of 2026, as a weak stock market weighs on investor sentiment

The recent rally in residential property is likely to lose steam in the second half of 2026, as a weak stock market weighs on investor sentiment