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Cheryl Arcibal

As Hong Kong moves forward with its huge new Northern Metropolis development zone, analysts argue the government should take a cautious approach to land sales to help sustain the recent recovery in the residential property market.
The large-scale project near the border with the Chinese mainland continues to progress, as the government set a tender deadline for midday on Friday for several plots in the Hung Shui Kiu/Ha Tsuen New Development Area.
The parcels of land – which comprise three residential sites and three enterprise and technology park sites – measure about 11 hectares and can supply more than 3,100 flats and about 280,000 square metres (3 million square feet) of industrial floor space.
“Recent land tenders already reflected a more realistic supply pace, alongside improving bidding momentum, which helps support price stability and market confidence,” said Eric Tsang, acting head of valuation and advisory services at Colliers Hong Kong.
“Against this backdrop, we believe land supply should remain measured, structured and disciplined, to maintain a steady and sustainable momentum of the residential market.”
The government should maintain its current approach to launching land tenders, which focuses on “small steps, quick strides and quarterly fine-tuning”, according to Derek Chan Hoi-chiu, head of research at Ricacorp Properties.
“While keeping the total potential supply of around 98,000 private housing units over the next five years unchanged, the government should appropriately shift its land supply focus towards the strategic layout of the Northern Metropolis,” he said.
“This approach will not only stabilise market expectations for medium-to-long-term supply, but also prevent irrational volatile pressure on the recovery of property prices in the short term.”

The city’s residential property market shook off a three-year slump last year, with home sales reaching a four-year high of 62,832, according to the Land Registry. Second-hand home prices also rose by 3.63 per cent in 2025, according to the Rating and Valuation Department (RVD).
The recovery has continued through the early months of 2026. New-home sales were on track to reach 12,000 for the first half of this year, which was close to levels last seen in 2019, Midland Realty reported last month.
Meanwhile, the supply of new homes is expected to slow in the coming years. Developers completed 18,448 private homes in 2025, down by 24 per cent compared with the previous year, according to the RVD. The figure is expected to decline further to 16,975 this year and 15,362 in 2027.
Some analysts, however, hold different views on whether the nine residential plots set to be tendered this financial year – which together can accommodate an estimated 6,650 flats – will be enough to match rising demand.
“With the recent recovery of the residential market, and developers have gained confidence in the sale of their new projects, I believe the government may release more residential land supply to match the market demand as well as increase the government land sale revenue,” said Reeves Yan, executive director and head of capital markets at CBRE Hong Kong.
Yan and his team were behind the more than HK$1.9 billion (US$242 million) private tender sale of No 1 North Point Terrace to the Chinachem Group in June, marking “the largest private residential redevelopment site sale in Hong Kong year-to-date in 2026, underscoring renewed momentum and confidence in the city’s residential property market”, according to CBRE.


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As Hong Kong pushes forward Northern Metropolis project, analysts say land supply should remain ‘measured’ to support property market recovery


As Hong Kong pushes forward Northern Metropolis project, analysts say land supply should remain ‘measured’ to support property market recovery.


Caution on land tenders key to Hong Kong’s property recovery: analysts

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}As Hong Kong pushes forward Northern Metropolis project, analysts say land supply should remain ‘measured’ to support property market recovery

As Hong Kong pushes forward Northern Metropolis project, analysts say land supply should remain ‘measured’ to support property market recovery