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Peggy Ye

The US-Israeli war on Iran has unleashed sharp swings across global energy and financial markets, fuelling demand for safe-haven assets, with Hong Kong emerging as a potential beneficiary across gold, property and capital markets. In the second of a three-part series, we look at Hong Kong’s position as a stable base where demand for property has held firm despite the global turmoil.
Hong Kong’s property market is showing early signs of renewed safe haven demand, with a surge in luxury transactions and record-high rents suggesting the city may be benefiting – however tentatively – from rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
While it is too early for statistical evidence of large-scale capital inflows, anecdotal evidence is emerging.
Louis Ho Siu-tong, senior principal sales director for luxury districts at Centaline Property, said a Chinese entrepreneur based in Abu Dhabi, who runs a private jet consultancy, recently inquired about renting an upscale home in Hong Kong.
The client had been monitoring geopolitical risks since early this year, but worsening tensions in the region have accelerated plans to shift some of his operations. “If business cannot be done there as smoothly, they would rather move some operations to Hong Kong, where there are still opportunities,” Ho said.
The individual has yet to decide how much business to relocate, but the inquiry points to tentative movement of both capital and people.

While such cases remain limited, they highlight Hong Kong’s role as a stable base where demand for property has held firm despite the global turmoil. Analysts say Hong Kong is benefiting more because of its relative stability than from any direct shift of funds.
The shift comes as global wealth reassesses geographic exposure. Hong Kong, the world’s second-largest luxury residential market after Dubai, is drawing renewed attention as instability in the Gulf clouds the outlook for one of its main rivals.
Dubai’s property market has shown early signs of strain. Its real estate index fell about 30 per cent between late February and mid-March. Transactions in March, totalling US$15.5 billion across 17,618 deals, indicated a mild slowdown, according to Juwai IQI.
The cooling follows the US-Israel war on Iran, with Iranian attacks on Gulf infrastructure such as airports and ports undermining investor confidence and prompting a broader reassessment of risk.
Chinese investors, among the most active buyers in Dubai in recent years, had been drawn by its strong returns and perceived stability. “They were attracted by the high rental yields, the safe-haven status, and policies such as free capital flows and residency visas,” said Frederick Ho, founder of Pinnacle International Consultant, who advises Hong Kong and mainland Chinese clients on Middle East property investments.
But that cohort is now being closely watched for signs of shifting preferences.
Back in Hong Kong, the resilience is most visible at the top end. Deals involving homes priced above HK$100 million (US$12.8 million) rose 157 per cent year on year in the first quarter to 72, with total transaction value up 165 per cent, according to Centaline Property.
The rental market has also tightened. Private residential rents have risen for three consecutive months to record highs. Home prices have rebounded about 12 per cent from last year’s low.
Sino Land’s La Mirabelle project sold 595 units over the past three weeks, generating more than HK$5.2 billion. Buyers included foreign end users from the UK, South Korea and India, alongside mainland Chinese purchasers, with interest also coming from international investors such as institutional and family-office capital.

“The strong participation from end users alongside interest from overseas buyers shows market confidence in Hong Kong’s residential market,” said Victor Tin, executive director at Sino Land.
The impact is beginning to extend beyond housing into commercial demand. Hong Kong’s stability and role as a financial hub are attracting businesses from within and outside the region, with Turkey’s largest private bank, Turkiye Is Bankasi, in the process of establishing an office in the city.
Jennifer So, Hong Kong city head at The Executive Centre, said inquiries rose about 10 per cent this month from mainland Chinese and European firms, particularly in finance and wealth management. Consultancy Cushman & Wakefield said it had received inquiries from overseas companies reconsidering their regional office footprint.
However, the broader capital shift remains gradual. Data from Juwai IQI showed that inquiries from Chinese and Hong Kong buyers into the UAE fell about 6 per cent below the two-year average after tensions escalated – a modest decline that remains within normal variation.
For now, Hong Kong property is not seeing a flood, but the first trickles of a safe-haven revival are recognisable, say analysts.


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Business

Property

Hong Kong & China

In turbulent times, will Hong Kong be a safe haven?

Early signs of capital inflows and tenant movement emerge as Dubai property softens and investors rethink regional bets


Early signs of capital inflows and tenant movement emerge as Dubai property softens and investors rethink regional bets.


Hong Kong property may see uptick in ‘safe haven’ demand as Iran war rattles Dubai market

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Early signs of capital inflows and tenant movement emerge as Dubai property softens and investors rethink regional bets

Early signs of capital inflows and tenant movement emerge as Dubai property softens and investors rethink regional bets