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Peggy Ye

The increase in stamp duty on ultra-luxury homes above HK$100 million (US$12.8 million) is unlikely to change buying behaviour, analysts said, as the structural forces underpinning demand from mainland Chinese buyers could outweigh the impact of the rise in transaction costs.
The Hong Kong government, in the annual budget on Wednesday, increased the tax rate on residential transactions above HK$100 million to 6.5 per cent from 4.25 per cent amid a surge in demand for high-end property from mainland buyers.
Property agents said the 2.25 percentage-point rise in transaction costs would not significantly impact mainland Chinese demand. They added that the authorities were likely seeking to prevent overheating before momentum accelerates further in the trophy-home segment.
“The government saw a sudden increase in large-ticket transactions this year, which signals returning confidence,” said Louis Ho Siu-tong, senior associate director at Centaline Property covering The Peak and the Southern district. “They do not want prices to rise too quickly.”

The move came as mainland Chinese purchasers accounted for about 80 per cent of HK$100 million-plus transactions in prime districts this year, according to Centaline. A total of 48 such deals worth HK$10.4 billion were completed year-to-date as of Wednesday, Centaline said. There were a total of 262 transactions worth HK$53.1 billion in 2025.
Financial Secretary Paul Chan said in his budget speech that buyers with “greater financial means” should “contribute more”, expecting to raise about HK$1 billion annually from the higher stamp duty.
The broader housing market has also started to show signs of stabilisation. Lived-in home prices rose 3.66 per cent in 2025, ending three consecutive years of decline.
Prices of larger homes measuring at least 1,076 sq ft gained 2.93 per cent last year, though they remain about 19 per cent below their October 2021 peak. In January, 26 such deals worth HK$5.3 billion were recorded, up 70 per cent in volume and 50 per cent in value from a month earlier, according to Centaline.
The stronger-than-expected property market momentum has prompted global investment banks to cluster around a more bullish view for 2026, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs joining Morgan Stanley in projecting double-digit gains.
Joseph Tsang, chairman of JLL in Hong Kong, said January’s spike partly reflected several ultra-large transactions, including Swire Properties’ HK$2.6 billion sale of two three-storey units at 6 Deep Water Bay Road to a buyer from the mainland.
“The surge somewhat coincided with a few big-ticket deals,” Tsang said, cautioning against reading the figures as a straight-line trend.
The Hong Kong dollar’s relative weakness has made local assets appear cheaper for yuan-based buyers. Mortgage rates have also eased in recent months, reducing financing costs.
More fundamentally, Tsang said, wealthy mainland individuals increasingly viewed Hong Kong property as a means of allocating capital within an internationally connected financial system, where proceeds could be held and redeployed offshore with greater flexibility.
“There is a clear desire to place their assets in a market with an internationally connected financial system,” he said.
Recent transactions illustrate the strength of demand. Earthstone paid HK$323 million for a 4,566 sq ft flat at Mount Nicholson, about 3.5 per cent higher than its previous sale price in 2016. Company filings showed Fu Songyang, founder of Beijing-based luxury-car dealer FFF-Automobile, was a director of the purchasing company.
In another deal, Alphabase Investments acquired a four-bedroom unit at The Legacy in Mid-Levels West for HK$158 million. Land Registry records identified Yuan Yuwei, a director of the acquiring entity, as the buyer.
Given these drivers, property agents said the higher stamp duty might have a limited impact.
“Mainlanders were buying luxury homes even when there was a 30 per cent tax,” said Centaline’s Ho, referring to the additional duties that were scrapped in 2024. “They will definitely buy now.”


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Mainland buyers accounted for about 80 per cent of the HK$100 million-plus deals in the city so far this year, according to Centaline


Mainland buyers accounted for about 80 per cent of the HK$100 million-plus deals in the city so far this year, according to Centaline.


Hong Kong’s 6.5% stamp duty will not stop luxury homebuyers from mainland China: analysts

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Mainland buyers accounted for about 80 per cent of the HK$100 million-plus deals in the city so far this year, according to Centaline

Mainland buyers accounted for about 80 per cent of the HK$100 million-plus deals in the city so far this year, according to Centaline