Hongkongers’ Shenzhen shopping sprees abate, in relief for retail owners, UBS and JLL say
UBS revises its 2025 forecast to flat from a 5 per cent decline, while JLL sees signs of stabilisation as Shenzhen shopping craze cools
Hong Kong’s downtrodden retail sector could be headed for a turning point in coming months, as city residents show less enthusiasm for taking their money across the border for bargains in Shenzhen, according to UBS Investment Bank and JLL.
The city’s retail sales were likely to be flat this year, the Swiss bank said on Monday, an upgrade from its previous forecast of a decline as big as 5 per cent.
Amid the decline, some categories grew. Supermarket sales rose by 4.9 per cent year on year. Sales of food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco surged by 10.9 per cent. And purchases of medicine and cosmetics increased by 4.3 per cent.
The government is scheduled to announce February retail sales in the first week of April.
Meanwhile, monthly land departures by Hong Kong residents – a proxy for trips to mainland China – stopped increasing over the last six to seven months after growing as much as 140 per cent from 2018 levels.