Technology adoption: electric cars pass 5% crucial tipping point in 23 countries
- The 5 per cent tipping point for EVs signals the start of mass adoption, when technological preferences rapidly flip
- Countries that cross the tipping point have seen rapid rates of EV adoption, with a median sales growth of 55 per cent last quarter compared with a year earlier
Convincing everyone to adopt a new technology can be a slog at first. The humble microwave oven, for example, took two decades of lukewarm sales to reach just a tenth of US households. But then came the 1980s, and quicker than you could say “Hot Pockets”, microwaves had spread to nearly every kitchen.
That fast part of the technology adoption curve is happening now with electric vehicles (EVs), according to a Bloomberg Green analysis of adoption rates around the world. When the first analysis was completed this analysis a year ago, 19 countries had passed what has become a critical EV tipping point: 5 per cent of new car sales powered only by electricity. This threshold signals the start of mass adoption, when technological preferences rapidly flip. Since then, five more countries have made the leap.
The newcomers – Canada, Australia, Spain, Thailand and Hungary – join a cohort that also includes the US, China and most of western Europe. The trajectory laid out by these early adopters shows how EVs can surge from 5 per cent to 25 per cent of new cars in just four years.
Most successful new technologies – televisions, mobile phones, LED light bulbs – follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl in the early-adopter phase, then quickly once things go mainstream. In the case of fully EVs, 5 per cent seems to be the inflection point. The time it takes to get to that level varies widely by country, but once the universal challenges of car costs, charger availability and driver scepticism are solved for the few, the masses soon follow.
In the US, the EV tipping point did not arrive until late 2021 – relatively late for a country with spending power. There were reasons for that delay. Americans spend more time in their cars than any other populace, and drivers demanded longer ranges than early models offered. Pickup trucks and large SUVs, which make up more than half of the US market, were also slow to electrify due to their massive battery needs.
