Hong Kong begins its own 'March of Folly'

And now the governments in Hong Kong and Beijing begin their march of folly, a descent into a cycle of preventable and irreversible decisions and acts that threaten to introduce permanent and irreconcilable civil and political instability into Hong Kong.

By failing to address quality of life issues caused by a tycoon-dominated economy, the government fuelled concerns over the Basic Law's election process into a sprawling protest that is busting at the seams with history's self-contradictions.

Like financial markets, history inflicts its cycles on participants who stubbornly decide to defend the wrong side of human conflict. Barbara Tuchman's groundbreaking work The March of Folly is worth reading because it explores the reasons that humans, especially governments, persist in actions that are illogical and foolish, that actually hurt their self-interest. The leaders of the Hong Kong and central governments are unwittingly creating their own chapter.

Tuchman defines folly as the pursuit by governments of policies contrary to their own interests, despite the availability of feasible alternatives. She suggests that ambition makes people in a position of power hesitant to change course, appear weak or to ignore the greater good for their own benefit. Erroneous, initial conclusions are reached early on. As opposition mounts, the initial conclusions are codified and reinforced because those in power don't want to "lose". Persistence errors emerge. Even as evidence piles up it is difficult to admit defeat, leading to even more costs and an eventual stunning loss of prestige and face. Today, Hong Kong is experiencing this kind of failure and delusion in government.