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Yoshihiro Sakai
Yoshihiro Sakai is adviser to the Office of the President at the University of Tokyo. He is a former market operation officer at the Bank of Japan and a senior economist.
China’s crisis stems from overenthusiastic investment while Japan’s was a result of speculation and bank profligacy. To revitalise its economy and calm international jitters, Beijing should look to other industries with higher investment yields, such as the tech sector.
Despite the announcement of the Camp David principles, more needs to be done to mend ties between Japan and South Korea. Nevertheless, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is clearly convinced that bolstering the country’s defence capabilities is necessary both for security and the economy.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reinvigorated those arguing that Japan should revise its constitution and bolster its ability to defend itself. The Group of 7 summit in Hiroshima could be the stage for Japan to announce its intent to send weapons to Ukraine, with the added bonus of spurring economic growth.
Foreign policy is one of the top priorities of the Kishida administration, as is increasing Japan’s military strength and ensuring regional stability. Efforts to make Japan a bigger player in Ukraine could damage ties with China and Russia, though, which would put Japan’s economy at greater risk.
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Widely expected to steer Japan out of its long-held ultra-loose monetary policy, Kazuo Ueda, an academic, can expect alien territory, and a very tough job. Most importantly, he must ensure any policy changes are good for the people.
Japan is paying the price of its tough stance against Russia as it faces a weakening yen and rising tensions with Moscow over the disputed Northern Territories. Add to this a yawning trade deficit and reluctance to tighten monetary policy, and Japan could see the yen lose value even further.
Kishida wants to focus on post-pandemic growth and sustainability, and that may mean more dealings with China. He cannot afford to fuel tensions with Beijing by taking sides with Washington and is treading a fine line on issues such as Taiwan, Xinjiang and the Olympics.
Expect Fumio Kishida to take a more progressive approach to issues around Japan’s sluggish economy and foreign affairs. Enacting his policies will require greater trade and investment, and he is likely to look to China for both once his election victory is secured.
Vehicle exports keep Japan’s economy afloat, but new regulations could put a million jobs and Japan’s trade surplus at risk. Calculating the environmental impact of a car’s entire life could cripple carmakers unless the government changes Japan’s energy mix.
As calls mount for the Tokyo Olympics to be cancelled or postponed, the Japanese government’s mishandling of the coronavirus crisis has come into sharp focus.
