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Will they miss the boat?

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In the past 30 years, China has transformed the lives of almost all its citizens. Hundreds of millions of people now have higher standards of living, with better access to education, health care and housing. Levels of nutrition have risen, too.

Millions now own several apartments, cars and luxury handbags. Hundreds of millions, rising behind them, aspire to the same, or a washing machine, unpolluted air and a little less corruption. As well as unleashing a wave of manic consumption, China's rise has created a tsunami of expectation.

The momentum appears clear and unstoppable. While the pace might slow a little, within 20, 30 or 40 years, it looks as if the lifestyles of the entire population might rise to that of the developed world. Rather than a few tens of millions of Chinese people with flashy cars, their own houses and expensive Italian shoes, it will be almost all of them. China will be the biggest market in the world for everything we can imagine as well as everything we can't, and probably within a generation.

Only it won't.

China's dreams, and the expectations of more than a billion people, will never come true. The hopes of manufacturers everywhere will be dashed. Instead of fighting to meet the ever-rising demand of the Chinese, one of the biggest challenges the planet probably faces is diluting their expectations again.

At issue is not some imagined risk of war which might knock China off its path. Nor is it a failure in the abilities of the Chinese people to progress. China's growth and the dreams of millions will be brought to a halt by a lack of resources.

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