North Korea has, once again, caught the world's attention. Kim Jong-il, North Korea's supreme leader, died reportedly of a heart attack on December 17, reminding us of the similar death of his father, Kim Il-sung in 1994.
Kim Jong-il's death, though not entirely unexpected, leaves many questions unanswered, the most important of which concerns the political succession of his 27-year-old son, Kim Jong-un.
Unlike China, the former Soviet Union or Libya, blood line represents legitimacy and guarantees minimum loyalty for a new leader in North Korea. Whether it is Jang Song-thaek (Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law who is in charge of public security), Kim Kyong-hui (Kim's sister) or leaders of the Korean People's Army, they will have to rely on the 'respectable comrade' Kim Jong-un at least for the short term. The longer-term prospects appear murky, however.
An orderly transfer of power - thereby maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula - is a shared goal of key powers in the region. China was the first to offer official condolences to Pyongyang in the name of the government (within four hours) as well as of the Communist Party (within eight hours), in addition to recognising Kim Jong-un as successor. President Hu Jintao's visit to the North Korean embassy in Beijing was a powerful indicator of the ties between the two socialist nations. Kim Jong-il's four visits to China within the past two years were not futile after all.
The US is watching the developments closely as it was on the verge of conducting serious dialogue with North Korea regarding denuclearisation. While Washington takes seriously the lingering dangers of instability on the peninsula, it also considers the moment a valuable window of policy change on the part of Pyongyang. We are reminded of the US-North Korea Geneva accord on denuclearisation in 1994 following Kim Il-sung's sudden death.
The South Korean government has thus far taken a cautious, calm and rational approach. The departure of Kim may actually relieve Seoul of the burden of demanding Pyongyang's apology for the two incidents of the Cheonan sinking and Yongpyong shelling in 2010.