Earlier this year, I outlined here my forecast of events leading up to the chief executive election next March. So far, things have happened pretty much according to script. I said candidates would declare their candidacy only after the formation of the 1,200-member Election Committee and, before that, 'there will be a few people declaring that they will drop out, to clear the path to battle for others'. As things have turned out, former Legislative Council president Rita Fan Hsu Lai-tai announced last week that she wouldn't stand.
Now that leaves only two candidates from the pro-establishment camp, former chief secretary Henry Tang Ying-yen and former Executive Council convenor Leung Chun-ying. Democrats chairman Albert Ho Chun-yan will be the jester on the sidelines. Alan Leong Kah-kit, chairman of the Civic Party, bowed out long ago.
Legislator Regina Ip-Lau Suk-yee, who admitted she was late in preparation for the race, can be regarded as a back-up.
Most likely, the race will be a one-on-one fight between Leung and Tang. The former chief secretary used to lead in the opinion polls, but is now trailing his rival, especially after the exposure of his infidelity.
The two are expected to declare their candidacies in the next few days, and the race will formally start. We citizens will not settle for wishy-washy mediocrity; both will have to show us their agenda and their vision for Hong Kong's future.
We are now in the middle of picking members for the Election Committee, which will be completed by the middle of next month. People on the whole are getting a lot more serious about this election and there are more than two candidates vying for every seat that's being contested.
To some, this is a warm-up for next year's contest of functional constituency seats in the Legislative Council, and for the direct election of our chief executive in 2017 when the Election Committee becomes a nomination committee. The Election Committee contest is also important to the pan-democrats, who must get 150 seats to register Ho as the candidate for the chief executive race.
