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Lau Nai-keung

Earlier this year, I outlined here my forecast of events leading up to the chief executive election next March.  So far, things have happened pretty much according to script. I said candidates would   declare their candidacy only after the formation of the 1,200-member Election Committee and, before that, 'there will be a few people declaring that they will drop out, to clear the path to battle for others'.  As things have turned out, former Legislative Council president Rita Fan Hsu Lai-tai  announced last week that she wouldn't stand.
Now that leaves only two candidates from the pro-establishment camp, former chief secretary Henry Tang Ying-yen  and former  Executive Council convenor Leung Chun-ying. Democrats chairman Albert Ho Chun-yan will be the jester on the sidelines. Alan Leong Kah-kit,  chairman of the Civic Party, bowed out long ago.
 Legislator Regina Ip-Lau Suk-yee, who admitted she was late in preparation for the race,  can be regarded as a back-up.  
 Most likely, the  race  will be a one-on-one fight between  Leung and  Tang.  The former chief secretary used to  lead in the opinion polls, but is now trailing his rival, especially after the exposure of his  infidelity.  
 The two are expected to declare their candidacies in the next few days, and the race will formally start. We citizens will not settle for wishy-washy mediocrity;  both  will have to show us their agenda and their vision for Hong Kong's future.
We are now in the middle of  picking members for the  Election Committee,  which will  be completed  by the middle of next month. People on the whole are getting a lot more serious about this election and there are more than two candidates vying for every  seat that's being contested. 
To some, this is a warm-up  for next year's contest of functional constituency seats in the Legislative Council,  and  for the direct election of our chief executive in 2017 when the Election Committee  becomes a nomination committee. The Election Committee contest is also important to the pan-democrats, who must get  150 seats  to register Ho as the candidate for  the chief executive race. 
Despite daily demonising of the Election Committee, most people now realise  its  importance  and the importance of the upcoming 'small circle' chief executive election:  we must  get the right person to take the helm for the next five years.
There is still one question lingering in many people's mind: will the central government show its preference before the formal registration of candidacy next February? My answer is: why would the central government do that? 
To the central government,  Tang and  Leung are both acceptable candidates as there is no doubt about their national allegiance. It is then entirely up to Hong Kong people to decide which one should be the next chief executive.
Conventional wisdom propagated by the mainstream media has it that once Ho is in the race, there will be no need for the pro-establishment camp to field two candidates as it  would only split the vote, in Ho's favour.
Let's face it: Ho, who would win at the most 200 of the 1,200 votes, is immaterial  in the race. If neither Leung nor  Tang manages to get more than the mandatory 601 votes in the first round of voting,  Ho will  be out before a second, run-off, round is held.    
Ho's presence  serves only to ensure there's one pan-democrat candidate in the race. And of course the Democratic Party will not mind  getting more limelight,  with the Legislative Council election only six months down the road. 
Lau Nai-keung is a member of the Basic Law Committee of the NPC Standing Committee, and also a member of the Commission on Strategic Development



Don't look to Beijing to pick Hong Kong's next leader