Signs of trouble in dynastic succession

THE postponement of the funeral of the late North Korean President Kim Il-sung from today to Tuesday could be the first sign that the Kim dynasty is experiencing difficulty in establishing itself. A mass rally memorial service, now set for Wednesday, will more clearly indicate which way things are going as the new Great Leader, Kim Jong-il, seeks to grasp the power long wielded by his father. Some sources dismiss fears of trouble, saying the dynastic succession is proceeding, and that father and son had such a long time to establish it, that it is unlikely their handiwork can be quickly undone. Nevertheless, the postponement is curious to say the least. It has to be set against the twin facts that the Korean Worker's Party (KWP) Central Committee and the Supreme People's Assembly (SPA) have either been meeting, or have met, since their members were urgently called to Pyongyang immediately after Kim Il-sung's death. The North Korean people have not been told anything about the meetings. There has been no announcement that the KWP has appointed Mr Kim as secretary-general or that the SPA has made him North Korea's new president. It has been assumed that these announcements that the son had inherited his father's remaining titles (Mr Kim is already commander-in-chief of the armed forces) were being delayed until after the funeral. Now the possibility exists that the funeral is being postponed because either the KWP or the SPA are not ready to make their announcements. Such speculation fits in with one conceivable scenario for the succession - that Mr Kim will sustain the dynasty but be forced to share power or titles either with other members of Kim Il-sung's family, or with members of North Korea's ruling elite. The official excuse for the funeral postponement - that more time is needed for people to pay their respects - is questionable. Mourning by the masses in North Korea is taking place at the many statues of the old Great Leader around the country. In the middle of last week, Radio Pyongyang was already noting that 17.5 million of North Korea's 22 million citizens had visited at least one of the statues. Given the Draconian powers of the police state, it seems highly likely that by now the other 4.5 million have also done their duty. Additionally, the North Korean Government has already had one week to organise the funeral. Given the way in which the KWP has organised the mass mourning of the nation, it hardly needs any more time for that task. No special arrangements have to be made for foreign mourners since a blanket ban on foreigners attending has been instituted, with only a few minor exceptions being made for overseas Koreans. So there are clear grounds for suspecting that some other reason has caused the postponement. That reason could be politics. It is possible that the Kim dynasty has aroused so many discontents during its long rule that these are already surfacing, through manoeuvring within the political elite. So far, the official North Korean media, while giving Mr Kim the title of Great Leader, has merely referred to him being ''raised up'' to the top of the party, nation and armed forces. This could mean that the succession is proceeding smoothly. Equally the few known facts also suggest that Mr Kim is being so elevated that he becomes a mere figurehead rather than a power-wielder. In other words, those within the power elite seeking to take control want the legitimacy which Mr Kim can provide but do not want his allegedly erratic personality running the Government. The postponement could also signify that the dynasty, while in power, feels insecure, and wants to arouse even more mass hysteria as a means of shoring up its totalitarian control. It could even be that Mr Kim is so intoxicated with the hysterical mass adulation, that he wants to continue the exercise a little longer. Yet the announcement of the memorial service to be held on Wednesday is interesting, because it surely poses a challenge which the new Great Leader cannot avoid. It is likely that the service will be one of the mammoth mass rallies of the kind that Pyongyang is adept at organising. Mr Kim will have to appear at both the funeral and the rally - and at one or both events he will have to address the North Korean people. This will be a new experience for him. In the past his speeches on television or radio have been read for him. Only once has he been heard shouting in his own voice - ''Glory to the heroic Korean People's Army! Long live Kimilsungism'' - at the end of a military display in 1992. On Wednesday, if not before, the real Mr Kim will have to stand up and deliver a speech himself. Should be fail to do so, further speculation on the possible demise of the dynasty is to be expected.