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If push comes to shove

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Across the Middle East and North Africa, autocrats, dictators and monarchs are becoming more worried as the weeks pass. The long-standing rulers in Tunisia and Egypt have been forced from office by their people, while thousands have taken to the streets in Yemen, Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Bahrain, Jordan and Syria. Rulers watch, in a nightmare from which they cannot wake, as the dominoes tumble around them. And as the 'revolution' spreads, Asia may not be immune.

In each state affected, the symptoms are the same - rising food prices, growing unemployment (especially youth unemployment) and corruption, exacerbating decades-old frustrations at a lack of political rights. And the killing of so many protesters by the authorities in Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain and now Libya isn't deterring the activists, but, rather, is helping bring people onto the streets in growing numbers.

The cure for the disease behind these symptoms varies from state to state, with the prognosis varying widely. Some of the 'revolutions' will succeed, others will fail. And while some will bring democracy, others will not.

Repressive dictators falling to popular revolt sounds hugely romantic, but current developments will not all lead to such an end. And, in some states, if change does occur it may bring to power elements as undesirable as the present incumbents.

While the protests are spreading rapidly, this has to date been limited to Muslim states in North Africa and the Middle East - the process started in North African Muslim Arab states, and has spread to neighbours with whom they share a historical, religious and ethnic context, and where there is anger over near-identical grievances.

This might change, potentially providing inspiration beyond the Muslim context where democracy is lacking and oppression rife, but also explains why Asian states with large Muslim populations are watching events very carefully indeed.

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